The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread

[Mr. Morden]

Mary Fallin signs the bill in Oklahoma, which moves the primary to March 6th:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/05/oklahoma-to-march-6.html

I've updated the calendar in the OP.

[Mr. Morden]

Both houses of the Florida legislature have passed the bill that would turn over the power to set the primary date to a "bipartisan" commission.  It now goes to Gov. Scott for his signature:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/05/florida-senate-passes-house-primary.html

I put "bipartisan" in scare quotes because the commission would be appointed by the GOP-majority legislature and the Republican governor, so it'll presumably have a Republican majority.  It's expected that the commission would follow the wishes of state Republicans, and schedule the primary for an early date.  Possibly Jan. 31, but possibly some time in February, if the existing February primary states end up moving later.

[Mr. Morden]

Haslam signs the bill which moves Tennessee to March 6th:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/05/tennessee-presidential-primary-to-march.html

I've updated the OP to reflect the revised calendar.

[Mr. Morden]

Maryland officially moves to April 3:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/05/maryland-presidential-primary-to-april.html

Missouri is the one to watch right now.  The legislature adjourns for the year on Friday, and the primary is still scheduled for Feb. 7.  The House has passed several bills that would move the primary to a later date, but the Senate won't pass them.  The GOP actually controls both houses of the legislature.

[Mr. Morden]

Maryland officially moves to April 3:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/05/maryland-presidential-primary-to-april.html

Missouri is the one to watch right now.  The legislature adjourns for the year on Friday, and the primary is still scheduled for Feb. 7.  The House has passed several bills that would move the primary to a later date, but the Senate won't pass them.  The GOP actually controls both houses of the legislature.

Why this discord between the houses?

A narrow majority in the state senate seem to be of the school of thought that says the primary system imposed by the national parties is unfair, and Missouri shouldn't cooperate with it.  They should just go ahead with an early primary, and to heck with what the national parties say.  In the house, I guess they disagree.

[Mr. Morden]

Deal signs the bill in Georgia that allows the Secretary of State to set the primary date:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/05/governor-deal-signs-presidential.html

There'd been some earlier speculation that he might go for a January primary, but apparently there's now the suggestion that he might pick April.  In which case, this bill was kind of pointless.  The legislature might as well have just set the date for April itself.

Gregoire signs the bill that cancel's Washington's primary:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/05/gregoires-signature-cancels-2012.html

I've updated the OP, though Washington still has GOP caucuses tentatively scheduled for February.

Also, the Missouri senate finally relented, and passed a bill that would move the primary to March, which has now been passed by both houses:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/05/missouri-house-passes-conference.html

The bill now goes to Gov. Nixon, who's expected to sign it.

There still remains an outside chance that Arizona, Florida, Michigan, and Minnesota will be the only states to defy the national parties and hold January/February primaries/caucuses when they're not supposed to.  All the other states still might end up moving later.  Of course, even if it's just those four, that's still enough to make Iowa and New Hampshire hold their contests in January.

[Mr. Morden]

Hawaii caucuses have moved to March 13th:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/05/hawaii-gop-moves-caucuses-to-march-13.html

I've updated the calendar in the OP.

[Mr. Morden]

Scott signs the legislation in Florida that hands the power to set the primary date over to a state-appointed board:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/05/governor-scott-sign-florida-elections.html

The board would be able to set the primary date to any time between the first week of January and the first week of March.  So I've updated the calendar to put Florida in the "TBD, but they want to go first" category.

We also have the first hints of primary movement in one of the biggest early primary states, New York:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/05/hints-of-april-24-regional-primary-from.html

New York apparently may join a proposed regional primary with PA, CT, and DE.  Only PA is already scheduled for April 24th.  It's not clear whether the GOP-controlled Senate in NY will go along with the later primary though.

[Mr. Morden]

It looks like Super Tuesday so far benefits Mitt Romney the most, with many Obama states in the North East, making it harder for a more conservative Republican to win there.

That may be a bit deceptive though, because the larger Democratic states like CA, NY, and NJ tend to have legislative sessions that last almost year-round, whereas Republican states are more likely to only be in session for the first five months of the year or so.  So most of the Republican states that used to be on Feb. 7th have already moved their primaries later, while the Democratic ones like CA and NJ will probably do so later in the year.

I still expect that, in all likelihood, enough of the remaining Feb. 7th states will move that it'll make March 6th the new Super Tuesday.

[Mr. Morden]

Morden, do you think it's more likely to have IA, NH, SC, and NV in January or February?  According to your calendar on the OP, I suspect January, am I correct in the assumption?  When do you think we'll know for sure on especially Iowa and New Hampshire since they traditionally the first two states?  IIRC, wasn't it pretty late in 2007 when January 3, 2008 was set as the Iowa Caucus date?

I think there's virtually a 100% chance that Iowa at least will be in January, and I strongly suspect that New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada will be as well (and probably Florida too....plus maybe Michigan).  Even if only one of those states on Feb. 7th or 11th stays put, Iowa and NH will schedule their contests for January, as NH always goes at least 7 days before any other primary, and Iowa always goes a week before NH.

Last time around, the Jan. 8th, 2008 date for the NH wasn't set until Nov. 21, 2007:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21920411/ns/politics-decision_08/t/earliest-ever-nh-primary-set-jan/

It might be set similarly late this time, as Arizona, Florida, Georgia, and Michigan may keep us guessing until fairly late in the year.  NH always tries to wait everyone else out, so that they can make sure they go first.  The newly passed legislation in Florida at least means that they'll have to decide by Oct. 1st, so maybe that'll be something of a marker.  If, say, Florida and Michigan both set their primaries for Jan. 31, then that would probably give IA, NH, and SC enough information that they could set their own dates.

[Mr. Morden]

Colorado moves to March 6th:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/05/colorado-presidential-caucuses-move-to.html

Calendar has been updated.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0511/55631.html

Louisiana is moving their caucuses up to either late January or early February and has changed the rules again. Due to Gingrich's implosion this is up for grabs. Jindal is a not-so-covert Romney backer and has been sending out barely coded signals for months to that effect. Sen. Birther will do the opposite of what Jindal does for feudal reasons. JNK is as unpredictable as Palin, ditto for Dardenne. Landry and Scalise will follow Jindal's lead. No public endorsements seem likely at this stage.

Louisiana is one of the states that annoys me by making their delegate selection plans needlessly complicated. 

As FHQ notes:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/05/louisiana-republicans-craft-new.html

they've done the caucus/primary 2-step thing before.  And in fact, even had an early caucus in 2008, which everyone ignored.  Are the delegate allocation rules markedly different this time from last time?  In what way are they different?  For now, I've just got the Louisiana primary on the calendar.  Will add the caucus date as well once they announce a specific date.

[Mr. Morden]

Mr. Morden, do you know until which date each state has to set it's primary/caucus date, so that the calendar is finalized ?

Good question.  For primary states, in most cases (I'll list the exceptions I know about below), the date can remain unresolved until whenever the legislature adjourns.  FHQ lists these dates here:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/01/frontloading-starts-with-state.html

It should be noted that in AL and MO, the legislature has already passed legislation moving the primary to March, and it awaits the respective governors' signatures.  So even though the MO legislature has already adjourned, the primary date there depends on whether Nixon signs the bill or not.  (CT is one to watch right now, as the legislature apparently adjourns within days, and only one house of the legislature has passed legislation moving the primary to March.)

Some of those state legislatures meet year-round.  So they could potentially wait until very late in the year to move.  However, as jimrtex noted, states now have to announce any election date at least ~60 days in advance, in order to mail out military absentee ballots in time.  So we can no longer have a situation where a state sets an early January primary in late November.

States where the primary date can still remain up in the air after the legislature adjourns:

AZ: The primary date is set for Feb. 28, but the governor can move it up to Feb. 7th if she wants.  I don't know what the deadline for that decision is.

FL: "Independent" commission (though it's appointed by the GOP-controlled legislature) sets the primary date, and they have until Oct. 1 to decide.

GA: The state's SoS sets the primary, and he has until Dec. 1 to decide.

NH: The state's SoS sets the primary date, and he can wait as long as he wants before announcing the date.

SC: The state parties set their own primary dates, and I believe they can wait as long as they want before announcing the date.

In the caucus and county/district convention states, the state parties set their own dates, and they can wait as long as they want in announcing what date to hold the caucus.  All of the caucus dates I list should be considered very tentative other than CO, HI, and MN.

[Mr. Morden]

The Utah GOP has decided to go with a June 26th primary, which puts them at the very end of the primary calendar (three weeks after any other state has voted):

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/06/utah-republicans-opt-to-link-2012.html

It is in fact allowable within the RNC rules to go this late.  Though I think that's the latest any state has ever gone.

Calendar in the OP has thus been updated.

[Mr. Morden]

Alabama has moved to March 13, same day as Mississippi and Hawaii:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/06/alabama-presidential-primary-to-march.html

The calendar in the OP has been updated.

[Mr. Morden]

The New York legislature passed a bill that would move the primary to April 24, the same day as PA.  It's not official yet, as Cuomo has to sign the bill, but I would assume that he'll sign it.  It may look like there are still quite a few February primaries on the calendar, but almost all of those states are on track to move their primaries later.  Most of the caucus states will probably do so as well, though that's less certain.  I have no idea what Kansas or Washington are going to do, for example.

But assuming that the caucus states end up moving later just like most of the primary states, there are still going to be four "problem states" (from the perspective of the RNC rules) that seem determined to stick with a Jan/Feb primary or caucus: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota.  MN actually might not be a problem, because the candidates will probably ignore it, since the caucus isn't strictly binding on delegate allocation (though technically, that's the case for a lot of caucuses), and because there's a favorite son and a favorite daughter candidate running.  It's actually possible that NH might go the same day as MN, figuring that the candidates will ignore MN.

The prime movers are likely to be AZ and MI (neither of which are likely to decide anything for another couple of months).  You might end up with something like this:

Feb. 1: IA
Feb. 7: NH, MN
Feb. 18: NV, SC
Feb. 21: FL
Feb. 28: AZ, MI
Mar. 6: Super Tuesday

That's about the latest that the primary season might start.  OTOH, it's just as likely that you'll end up with something like this:

Jan. 5: IA
Jan. 10: NH
Jan. 21: NV, SC
Jan. 24: FL
Jan. 31: MI
Feb. 7: AZ, MN
Feb. 11: KS, WA
Mar. 6: Super Tuesday

Or you could get something in between.  We probably won't know until August or September or so.

[Mr. Morden]

The Louisiana primary has been moved to March 24:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/06/louisiana-presidential-primary-to-march.html

The calendar in the OP has been updated.

[Mr. Morden]

Ohio moved to May 8th:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/07/ohio-presidential-primary-to-may-8.html

Calendar in the OP has been updated.

[Mr. Morden]

Rhode Island moves to April 24:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/07/rhode-island-presidential-primary-to.html

The calendar in the OP has been updated.

In Missouri, Nixon vetoes the bill that would move the primary to March:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/07/nixon-vetoes-missouri-presidential.html

He votoed it because of other provisions in the bill, not related to the primary date.  At present, Missouri is scheduled for a Feb. 7th primary, which would mean a 50% delegate penalty.  However, there is likely to be a special legislative session in MO this year, and the primary date is one of the issues that might be revisited.

[Mr. Morden]

The Arizona legislature has already adjourned for the year, so they can't move the primary later than Feb. 28th.  They can only move *earlier*, if Gov. Brewer decides to do so.

And Feb. 28th is unlikely for SC, since I think they also hold their primary on a Saturday.

[Mr. Morden]

The Arizona legislature has already adjourned for the year, so they can't move the primary later than Feb. 28th.  They can only move *earlier*, if Gov. Brewer decides to do so.

And Feb. 28th is unlikely for SC, since I think they also hold their primary on a Saturday.

I thought Brewer had the option to move it later?

No, she can leave it where it is or move it earlier.

[Mr. Morden]

CT has moved to April 24th:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/07/governor-malloys-signature-moves.html

Calendar in the OP has been updated.

[Mr. Morden]

It's still very much a question mark as to whether either Missouri or Wisconsin will move from their current February dates.  FHQ speculates that if Missouri stays on Feb. 7th, then FL, GA, and MI might all jump up to late January, and we might end up with something like this:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/07/follow-up-on-missouri-presidential.html

January
Iowa
New Hampshire
Nevada
South Carolina
Florida
Michigan
Georgia

February
7th Missouri
21st Wisconsin
28th Arizona

And that's not including some of the caucus states that may or may not stick with February.  Minnesota, for example, looks very likely to stick with Feb. 7th.

[Mr. Morden]

New York has now moved to April 24:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/07/cuomo-signs-bill-moving-new-york.html

Calendar in the OP has been updated.  Also, the California legislature has passed a bill moving the state's primary to June 5th:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/07/california-senate-passes-june.html

but it's not official until Brown signs it.

Feb. 7th is dead as Super Tuesday.  March 6th is the new Super Tuesday.  Though it's an extremely weak Super Tuesday, as there are only 7 states voting that day.  (Though a couple more will probably end up joining.)  But yes, March 6th is the date that'll have the most delegates at stake.  If both California and New Jersey move to June 5th as expected, then June 5th will probably be the date with the second most delegates at stake.

[Mr. Morden]

Any one in February even a caucus would push Iowa (and then everything) into January, no?  Pawlenty is hoping Minnesota goes the day after Iowa but we can assume that won't happen.

That's a good question.  It's actually more complicated than you might think.  NH says they will go at least one week before any other primary/caucus other than Iowa, and Iowa says they will go before NH.

But in reality, there have been numerous occasions in recent decades when Iowa and/or NH allowed some other state to go before them.  That's because Iowa and NH don't care about other states going before them, as long as those other states are mostly ignored by the candidates and the media.  In 2008, for example, Wyoming selected their delegates at county conventions, which were held after Iowa, but before NH.  NH didn't care, because Wyoming was largely ignored by the media.  In 1996, Louisiana held caucuses before both Iowa and NH, but most of the candidates boycotted the state, so as to respect the Iowa/NH tradition.

Which contests might go before Iowa and/or NH in 2012?  My calendar lists early dates for WY county conventions, WV state convention, and AK district conventions.  It's hard to imagine Iowa or NH complaining much about any of them going first, because those contests would all be ignored by the media.  Maine caucuses (because they're held over multiple days, and all the candidates skipped them last time) *might* also be able to get by going before at least NH.

The interesting case is Minnesota.  The Minnesota GOP wants to hold their caucus on Feb. 7th, and they're arguing that they should be exempt from the 50% delegate penalty because the caucus results are technically non-binding on delegate allocation.  But that's also the case in several other caucuses as well, and it doesn't necessarily prevent the candidates from campaigning there.  The other thing though is that MN has both a favorite son and favorite daughter candidate in the race, which makes it less likely that there'll be much campaigning there.

If other states cooperate, and the RNC is really determined not to start primary season before February, and NH gets assurances from all the candidates that won't compete in Minnesota's "rogue" caucuses, then there might even be a chance that this hypothetical calendar will come to pass, with MN and NH on the same day:

Feb. 1: IA
Feb. 7: NH, MN
Feb. 18: NV, SC
Feb. 21: FL
Feb. 28: AZ, MI
Mar. 6: Super Tuesday

[Mr. Morden]

NH Secretary of State Bill Gardner admits the obvious: New Hampshire will almost certainly hold its primary earlier than the Feb. 14 date that the national parties would like:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/07/gardner-speaks-new-hampshire-might-not.html

As FHQ blogger Josh Putnam says:

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