Marist: Obama leads in 3-way race with Palin and Bloomberg

[Mr. Morden]

Also, Christie at nine percent!?! And Pataki outpolling Pawlenty?  

Why wouldn't Christie be at 9%?  At the moment, he's in the news far more often than any of the "second tier" candidates who are actually running.  But he's usually not included in 2012 polls, so we don't have anything to compare to.  (Aside from Zogby Interactive, lol.)  9% sounds perfectly plausible.

[Mr. Morden]

who leads the GOP primary among:

Republicans only: Romney
Republican-leaning Independents: Romney
Tea Party supporters: Romney
income < $50,000: Palin/Romney tie
income > $50,000: Romney
not college graduate: Palin
college graduate: Romney
under 45: Huckabee/Romney tie
over 45: Romney
men: Huckabee/Romney tie
women: Romney


Also, what would an Obama 45% / Palin 31% / Bloomberg 15% electoral map look like?

[Mr. Morden]

Also, Christie at nine percent!?! And Pataki outpolling Pawlenty?  

Why wouldn't Christie be at 9%?  At the moment, he's in the news far more often than any of the "second tier" candidates who are actually running.  But he's usually not included in 2012 polls, so we don't have anything to compare to.  (Aside from Zogby Interactive, lol.)  9% sounds perfectly plausible.

That makes sense, it is just a bit of a surprise. I thought we had a poll last mont with him at five percent? Maybe I am misremembering. Christie is not running though, and I'll be very surprised if he does.

What about Pataki outpolling Pawlenty? That doesn't seem to make sense, considering that the latter is mentioned as a candidate much more often then the former.

Most of the other polls show Pawlenty at about 5%.  The margin of error on the GOP sample here is a whopping 5.5%, so it's all within the margin of error.

[Mr. Morden]

Nate Silver averages the data from this poll with the recent CNN and Quinnipiac polls, and finds a notable "education gap" for both Palin and Romney.  GOP primary voters with higher education levels are more likely to go with Romney, and those with lower education levels more likely to go with Palin:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/24/palin-support-limited-among-wealthy-college-educated-republicans/