PPP: Huck leads AK, KY; Palin leads OH, WA; Gingrich leads NC; Romney leads NV

[Mr. Morden]

link:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AKKYNVNCOHWA_1115.pdf


AK
Huckabee 17
Gingrich 16
Romney 16
Palin 15
Pawlenty 5
everyone else at 2 or less

KY
Huckabee 26
Palin 19
Gingrich 17
Romney 13
Daniels 4
everyone else at 2 or less

NC
Gingrich 23
Huckabee 19
Palin 19
Romney 14
Pawlenty 4
everyone else at 2 or less

OH
Palin 20
Gingrich 19
Huckabee 17
Romney 14
Pawlenty 6
Daniels 3
everyone else at 2 or less

NV
Romney 34
Gingrich 21
Palin 16
Huckabee 11
everyone else at 2 or less

WA
Palin 19
Romney 18
Huckabee 17
Gingrich 15
Pawlenty 4
everyone else at 2 or less

Yes, oddly enough, Palin's %age in her home state is lower than any of the other 5 states in the poll.

[Mr. Morden]

general election matchups from these poll:

AK
generic Republican 52%
Obama 40%

KY
generic Republican 59%
Obama 34%

NC
generic Republican 55%
Obama 40%

OH
generic Republican 55%
Obama 40%

NV
generic Republican 52%
Obama 43%

WA
generic Republican 47%
Obama 46%

Taking all of PPP's recent "Obama vs. generic Republican" polls at face value, you would end up with this ranking of swing states from most Democratic to most Republican:

WA < MN < CO < ME < NV&WI < PA < AK < FL&NH < NC&OH

Alaska is a weird outlier from expectations there.  Could just be because Alaska is hard to poll.  IA, MI, and VA weren't polled, and where they end up would determine which is the "linchpin" state.

[Mr. Morden]

PPP looks at the differential in Palin's support from men and women across the 18 states they polled here:

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/11/palin-no-mama-grizzly-herself-and-dont.html

The conclusion is that, on average, she actually does slightly better among Republican men then Republican women.  Though the difference is just 2 %age points.

[Mr. Morden]

Incidentally, PPP says that averaged across the 18 states they polled, the numbers would be:

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/11/wrapping-up-2012-gop-polls.html

Romney 19.5%
Palin 17.9%
Huckabee 17.1%
Gingrich 15.7%