DeMint: "I don't plan to run for president" (user search)
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  DeMint: "I don't plan to run for president" (search mode)
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Author Topic: DeMint: "I don't plan to run for president"  (Read 2211 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: October 24, 2010, 05:46:22 PM »

So he said to Hannity a few days ago:

http://www.gop12.com/2010/10/demint-i-dont-plan-to-run-for-president.html

This follows his somewhat stronger denial from last month, "I'm not going to run for President. I have no intentions, no plans, but I don't want to think past 2010 right now.":

http://www.gop12.com/2010/09/demint-no-plans-to-run-for-president.html
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2010, 06:39:58 PM »

Yeah, and Obama said the same thing back in 2005 or 2006.

Obama said he wouldn't run in 2004/5, but then reversed himself in October 2006, saying that he was thinking about running.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2010, 09:30:37 PM »

He would easily win the South Carolina primary.

But then again, Tom Harkin easily won the Iowa Caucus in 1992....

And then Tsongas won New Hampshire.  Can't recall another primary off the top of my head where the eventual winner won neither of those states.

Well, if we only count races from 1972 onwards (post-McGovern-Fraser reforms, which basically established that the primaries determine the nominee), then the only other election in which the eventual nominee lost both Iowa and NH would be 1972.  McGovern came in 2nd in both states, but went on to win the nomination.  Every primary campaign for both parties from 1976 to the present (except the Dems in '92) had the eventual nominee winning either IA or NH.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #3 on: October 25, 2010, 12:52:35 AM »

The resentment more-or-less at the early states for their favored position which motored the rush of states forward then created the Democrats' mess in 2008 somehow doesn't translate into a tendency of later states to embrace alternate candidates.  I've offered armchair analysis that NH tends to vote for a different candidate than IA as a means of protecting their own role as kingmaker.  After all, if NH follows IA kneejerk, it's much less important.  But then why wouldn't later states, childishly perhaps, do the same thing- that is, vote against early winners?

Don't confuse issues that state legislators care about with issues that ordinary voters care about.  Every governor and every state legislator in the country would love to get the kind of attention from presidential candidates and the media that's lavished on the early primary states.  Every governor would love to play the kingmaker role that Charlie Crist played in 2008, with his endorsement of McCain.

But most voters outside of IA, NH, and maybe SC are probably barely aware that there even is a controversy over the order of primary states, let alone hold a strong opinion on it.  For most, it would probably take some explaining to get them to see why it's even important.  It's just not something that's on the average voter's radar.

As for the general question of why people vote for the frontrunners who were crowned in the early states, this is a good read:

http://www.slate.com/id/2095993/
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #4 on: November 14, 2010, 10:15:19 PM »

DeMint is sticking with his "I have no plans to run" formulation, which would certainly qualify as a "non-denial denial".  It leaves open the possibility that he will in fact decide to run this cycle:

link

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He also says he doesn't think he's too conservative to win:

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