probability that the 2016 Democratic ticket will have a woman on it?

[Mr. Morden]

What's the probability that the 2016 Democratic ticket will have a woman on it?  That is, either as the presidential or vice presidential nominee?

My guess?  I actually think it might be as high as 90%.  Do not underestimate the "it's time for a woman" sentiment among a good chunk of the 2008 Clintonistas in the party, that will hold over into 2016.  Even if the Dems' presidential nominee in 2016 is a man, I think he'll pick a woman as his running mate.

[Mr. Morden]

I believe both the Democrats and Republican will have women on their tickets.

The Democrats will.

The Republicans I'm not sure about, as the list of available options is still somewhat limited.  But if they don't have a woman on the ticket, I think they'll at least have a racial minority on the ticket.

[Mr. Morden]

Heh, I started this thread in March 2010, and many posters at that time were saying something like 40-50% or so, while I was saying ~90%.  Now that the thread has been bumped, everyone's agreeing with me.  

[Mr. Morden]

Heh, I started this thread in March 2010, and many posters at that time were saying something like 40-50% or so, while I was saying ~90%.  Now that the thread has been bumped, everyone's agreeing with me.  

This is a bit odd. Apparently I'm the guy who bumped the thread after nearly three years.

I didn't think there was anything unusual about it when I commented in it.

No, I think it was bumped by one of those troll-spam accounts who bumped about 20 threads on this board before being banned.  I went back and deleted all of his posts, so I guess it now looks like you bumped it, but it wasn't really you.