Saturday, August 21, 2010 - Australian Federal Election

[Mr. Morden]

Have there been any polls on vote preference since Julia Gillard took over?

There's been one, which shows Labor ahead by 53% to 47% on two-part preference.

Oh, there's been more than one.  Several, in fact.  Two out just today, which both show Labor leading 52% - 48% on the two party preference:

link

However, on the primary vote count, Nielsen has the Coalition slightly ahead, at:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/12/2950571.htm

Coalition 42%
Labor 39%
Greens 14%

[Mr. Morden]

Galaxy poll out today shows almost exactly the same result as that Nielsen poll from last week:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/18/2956855.htm?section=justin

Primary vote:

Coalition 42%
Labor 39%
Greens 13%

2 party preference:

Labor 52%
Coalition 48%

[Mr. Morden]

Is there any easy way to predict what's going to happen in the Senate?

[Mr. Morden]

Has there been any speculation anywhere about what would happen to the Lib leadership after the election, if Labor is indeed reelected?  Are they likely to stick with Abbott for the time being, or might there be a challenge from Hockey, or someone else?

[Mr. Morden]

Nielsen has a new poll with Labor leading the Coalition 54%-46% on the two party preference:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/24/2963056.htm

[Mr. Morden]

latest Galaxy poll:

link

Primary vote:
Coalition 41
Labor 38
Greens 15

2pp:
Labor 52
Coalition 48

[Mr. Morden]

WA definitely does not use DST.  I was arranging a conference call that included a student in Perth this last summer, and this very issue came up.