list all candidates who you think have a >50% chance of running for 2012 GOP nom

[Mr. Morden]

Yes, we've had similar threads before, but it's been a while.  Who do you think is >50% likely to run for the 2012 GOP nomination?  Ignoring their chances of actually *winning*, just their chances of running in the first place.

I'd go with (in descending order of likelihood):

Romney (all but certain to run)
Pawlenty (very likely to run, not quite as likely as Romney)
Huckabee (more of a tossup....but sure, I'll go with >50% chance for him)


Palin is a possibility, but my gut tells me that she's more interested in being a political celebrity than an actual politician.  Gingrich.....I think (like in 2008) he'll just pretend that he's going to run, so that he can get more media attention, but he's more likely than not to opt out in the end.  Thune is probably more likely to run than the CW holds, but still <50%.  Jindal and Crist are waiting until at least 2016.  Barbour....yes, he's visited both Iowa and New Hampshire, but my gut says <50% chance for him.  Santorum......it would be unprecedented for someone to launch a successful presidential campaign after losing their last statewide race so badly, and Santorum is smart enough to know this.  Kempthorne....made some noises about running back in January, but hasn't been heard from since.  And Ron Paul and Gary Johnson are both possibilities, but less than 50%.

That's really about it.  Obviously, we're not going to have an election with just three candidates, so a few of the people who are <50% likely to run will end up running, I just don't know which ones.  And a few people who aren't on anyone's radar screen will jump in as well.

Thoughts?  Disagreements?  Rotten vegetables to throw?