July US unemployment rate up to 6.2%, about 209.000 jobs created

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332,000 jobs would be a nice step in the right direction, though I'm inclined to think that tepid labor force participation will be the primary cause of lower unemployment.

Job growth during tapering has been an interesting counterfactual. It seems that corporations cannot assume higher margins or stronger per customer sales/margins so they are hiring to expand their operations.

The Keynesians are probably stewing in their own superheated bile.

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I eagerly await the death of the LFP IS FALLING canard. Guess who's reaching retirement age?

http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_303.htm

As you can see, the workfare subsidies provided by Social Security and Medicare are raising employment rates for the elderly, while putting the 16-34 demographic out of work. Welfare/Medicaid work like retirement entitlements, and Social-Security/Medicare operate like Workfare.

Repentance and self-flagellation are probably your only options at this point.

[AggregateDemand]

I don't really believe that people staying in are causing more people not to get in. I do believe that people need more skills to participate. Young people are going to college and women are going to college more than men. As a result, LFP is stable for women in their 30s and 40s, and declining for teenagers and men.

The shifting labor force demographics are not particularly attributable to individual choices. What's happening is that middle aged Americans are paying FICA taxes to their parents. Their parents are using those entitlements as workfare, which, in turn, is ruining employment prospects for their grandchildren.

Who would you rather hire? A 65 years old, who has government-provided health insurance and income subsidies, or a 25 year old, with no experience who makes somewhat unreasonable salary and benefit demands because he needs to pay off educational debt, pay off a mortgage, and raise a family.

This is why workfare is so powerful, and welfare is so insanely broken.

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1. The number of 25 year olds in 2014 with all of a college education, a home mortgage, no health insurance, and a family to raise can probably be counted on one hand.

2. Adding a 65 year old to your business is a far worse hire, of course. A 65 year old in quality employment now has not been "hired" by anybody, they're just continuing to work. Nobody in their right mind would ever make a new hire, who they want to last a few years, a senior unless it's for Wal-Mart greeting.

While your narrative may be reasonable, it's not reflected in the data.

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AD always talks about data but whenever asked to deliver it in specifics he just says "look it up yourself."

http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_303.htm

People don't even click the links I provide to the convenient data tables. Let's not pretend that you or anyone else on Atlas is going to sift through a 144pg report, like the 2014 Long Term Budget Outlook, published by the CBO a couple of days ago.

If finding reports on a .gov websites is too onerous a task, you certainly aren't going to read the reports.

[AggregateDemand]

Labor force participation grew by 300,000. It would've likely been your predicted U% if not for that.

It should be noted that even in boom years like 2006 and 1999, LBP usually goes down in July and August as students prepare to return to school.

Yeah, the data is actually quite good. I was expecting another mindless cheerleading session as participation rates fell, but the opposite has occurred. Still, participation was around 66% a decade ago, but we're still trolling along at 63% today.