How did the South vote in previous presidential elections?

[Maistre]

I'm somewhat surprised that South Carolina didn't even hold a popular vote for presidential elections until 1868, when they were forced to.

Why is it surprising? The same was true with the governor until 1865.

[Maistre]

I'm somewhat surprised that South Carolina didn't even hold a popular vote for presidential elections until 1868, when they were forced to.

Why is it surprising? The same was true with the governor until 1865.

Well... most states had popular vote by the 1820's. Its just sort of surprising that it took that long for it to happen.

Well, you see my good man, South Carolina is not "most states," she is truly a diamond among the rocks.

[Maistre]

The Republicanization of the South is a bit more complex than the Southern Strategy turning a bunch of racists Republican in one election. There were sort of two 'waves' of Republicanization:

1. Demographic changes:

A). Northern migrants were moving to better business opportunities in the emerging 'sun belt.' This had particular effect in Florida. These migrants move into the South with no birthright allegiance to the Democratic Party and provided a base of support in Southern states similar to the mountain Republicans in TN and NC.

B). Native Southerners from small towns and farms moved to urban and suburban areas and into the middle class. These people identified the GOP as the party of low spending, anti-Communism and low taxes, which is what they saw as in their own interests.

These newcomers to Southern cities and suburban areas did not have connections to the Southern elite, so they found a pathway to social 'acceptance' through the GOP.

2. Goldwater

The third branch of Republicanism in the new South was the Goldwater candidacy and the enthusiasm it ensued among Southern whites. They were conservative on racial and economic issues. Goldwater actually declined a bit among the more established Republicans in the mountains and in the cities, but more than half of the counties that he won in the South had never voted Republican before.

I cooked up a map of South Carolina's Republican vote in 1964 and 1964, and the swing from 1960 to 1964:



There also is some correlation between that swing and the Wallace vote in 1968:

[Maistre]

There also is some correlation between that swing and the Wallace vote in 1968:

Similarly in NC:

[Maistre]

One more example, this time from the deep South: