Alabama Megathread 2: Thou Shall Not Touch Teenage Girls

[Vega]

Why are so many people acting as if Jones has this in the bag? Everybody is thinking about their own decency and forgetting about Alabama's.

Anyway, I haven't seen much evidence of massive movement in aggregate polling where it counts, which is Jones' percentage of the vote. He was basically hovering between 42-44% prior to this; even if you include the garbage 1-day polls and polls from questionable pollsters (pretty much all we have), the past 7 or so polls put him at an average of 44%.

Moore's percentages have dropped; Jones have stayed the same. This is the classic recipe of a Southern election where supposedly-principled Republicans temporarily jump ship before flocking back by Election Day, along with all of the "independents" and "undecideds". If Jones isn't sitting at 50% in aggregate polling or ahead by 4-5 points consistently, he isn't going to win.

A write-in candidate is the only thing that would reliably hand it to Jones.

[Vega]

You can't compare Scott Brown winning in 2009 with this, because he won on actual voter discontent along with the poor campaign that Coakley ran. If Jones manages to win this (which looks likely), it will be because his opponent was a sexual predator who lusted for teen girls - not because Alabama is sending a message about policy or Trump, pretty much the exact opposite of Brown's 2009 win.

[Vega]

On the theory that the allegations against Moore are a Dem conspiracy: if the Dems were willing to go that low, why not just go all the way and make up allegations of gay relationships? Those claims would have hurt Moore more with his base.

Who is this addressing -  and who that should actually be taken seriously is saying it's a Democratic conspiracy?

[Vega]

Is this turning into a faith thread? 

Please don't.

Oh baby I reconsider
My foolish notion
Well I need someone to hold me
But I wait for something more
Yes I've gotta have faith
Unh I gotta faith
Because I gotta to have faith, faith, faith
I gotta to have faith, faith, faith
I just got to wait
Because I got to have faith
I gotta have faith
I gotta, gotta, gotta have faith