Predicting the vote by race and religion

[© tweed]

You try it.

White: Bush 55% Kerry 44%
Black: Kerry 90% Bush 9%
Hispanic: Kerry 59% Bush 39%
Asian: Kerry 63% Kerry 35%

Catholic: Kerry 55% Bush 44%
Protestant: Bush 61% Kerry 38%
Jewish: Kerry 76% Bush 23%

[© tweed]

Here's how the vote went in 2000:

White: Bush 54% Gore 43%
Black: Gore 90% Bush 90%
Hispanic: Gore 61% Bush 38%
Asian: Gore 62% Bush 37%

Catholic: Gore 53% Bush 46%
Protestant: Bush 58% Gore 40%
Jewish: Gore 77% Bush 22%

Vote By annual family income in 2000:

Under 20,000: Gore 63% Bush 33%
20K to 40K: Gore 51% Bush 45%
40K to 60K: Bush 51% Gore 47%
60K to 75K: Bush 49% Gore 48%
Above 75K: Bush 52% Gore 46%

[© tweed]

It doesn't look like economic standing made a huge impact on the race. Do you have the stat on college education? I think Kerry will win with those with masters degrees 62-36.

I do.

No HS Degree: Gore 59% Bush 39%
HS Graduate: Bush 49% Gore 48%
Some College: Bush 51% Gore 45%
College Graduate: Bush 51% Gore 45%
Post-graduate degree: Gore 52% Bush 44%

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Where do you get these statistics? I need to start having some for my postings.

from Polling Report and CNN.

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Bush will increase his percentage of the Jewish vote by close to 10%.  That's one thing I'm relatively sure of.

He would have in a Dean race, but not against Kerry.

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Bush 49%, Kerry 50%

Why would Kerry have a lower percentage of the Catholic vote than Gore did?  Kerry could top 60% of the catholic vote.

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Bush 49%, Kerry 50%

Why would Kerry have a lower percentage of the Catholic vote than Gore did?  Kerry could top 60% of the catholic vote.

It depends on whether you are talking about practicing Catholics or just nominal Catholics.

Kerry will win among nominal Catholics who don't attend church regularly, but Bush will win among practicing Catholics.

In general, the more religious people tend to go Republican and the less religious people go Democratic.  I'm a Dem and haven't gone to chruch in 25 years.

[© tweed]

Ben's predictions look to be the most accurate.