official SC Democratic results thread (user search)
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Miamiu1027
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« on: January 26, 2008, 02:55:07 PM »

http://www.scdp.org/primary_results/

and throw some exit poll fragments in here if the mood should strike you...  polls close at 7pmEST
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1 on: January 26, 2008, 05:06:42 PM »

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Any idea how these counties break down?

I heard Charleston might help Edwards.
Moore beat Sanford by 26 points in Marlboro. Would it be accurate to infer that this county is majority black?

a tad over half IIRC
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2 on: January 26, 2008, 05:39:55 PM »

Looking back at Iowa and NH, the exit polls should give us a pretty clear indication of who won. If you abstract the results from gender, here's the numbers you get:

Iowa
Obama: 35%
Clinton: 27%
Edwards: 23%

NH
Clinton: 39%
Obama: 37%
Edwards: 17%

In fact, those NH are dead on. We really shouldn't've been that surprised back then as the night wore on after seeing those.

I thought even the exit polls showed an Obama win (even if it was only by 1-2 pts)?  Am I misremembering, or is this a "let's fudge our numbers after the results come in to save our hide" scenario?

The original exit polls had Obama winning by about 1.5% in NH.  they readjust the numbers once the actual results are known.  whether that constitutes 'fudging' is open to debate.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #3 on: January 26, 2008, 07:15:50 PM »

Marc Ambinder:

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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #4 on: January 26, 2008, 07:27:56 PM »

extrapolating the CBS exit poll gives us

Obama 53.78%
Clinton 27.27%
Edwards 18.34%
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #5 on: January 26, 2008, 07:37:27 PM »


http://election.cbsnews.com/campaign2008/exitPoll.shtml?state=SC&race=P&jurisdiction=0&party=D
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #6 on: January 26, 2008, 07:46:45 PM »

I'll be pleased if Obama can secure what appears to be a significant margin. It gives him a boost for Super Tuesday. I don't know about you, but that day is going to be almost as exciting as November will be Smiley

This is a campaign, and it's going to be one until Super Monster Supreme Tuesday.

Edwards is out of it, except as the king maker.

Now, how will th Democratic Party react to a brokered convention?

"My fellow Americans: after losing the election in 2000, I am proud to come out of retirement ... and nominate Hillary Clinton for President of the United States of America!"

Gore would only take it if he were convinced it was the only way to stop Hillary.  but we're talking about a 1-in-100 scenario right now.  at least with the Republicans it's 1-in-5.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #7 on: January 26, 2008, 08:53:34 PM »

CNN is spinning this pro-Obama when a bunch of people expected them to do the opposite.  and CNN usually has their head far up Hillary's ass too, so it's interesting, to say the least.

or maybe it's just too hard to spin a 27% loss positively.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #8 on: January 26, 2008, 10:07:56 PM »

Here's what I know. I know that when people say we can't overcome all the big money and influence in Washington, I think of that elderly woman who sent me a contribution the other day, an envelope that had a money order for three dollars and one cent along with a verse of scripture tucked inside the envelope. So don't tell us change isn't possible. That woman knows change is possible.

I liked the Strom Thurmond woman better.  who knows if any of these people actually exist.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #9 on: January 27, 2008, 12:10:52 AM »

blacks comprised 20% of the NY Democratic primary electorate in 2004
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