Bellwthers and anti-bellwethers? (user search)
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  Bellwthers and anti-bellwethers? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Bellwthers and anti-bellwethers?  (Read 12478 times)
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Miamiu1027
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« on: February 04, 2004, 04:43:13 PM »

Being a bellwether is easier than being an 'anti-bellwether' because it is unlikely that a state would against the nation trend line more often then not.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1 on: February 04, 2004, 04:45:22 PM »

MA voted the wrong way in 1968, 1972, 1988, and 2000.  I guess that's not a good example, but MA was WAAAAY against the trend line in 1972 as it was the only state for McGovern.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2 on: February 04, 2004, 04:49:22 PM »

MA voted the wrong way in 1968, 1972, 1988, and 2000.  I guess that's not a good example, but MA was WAAAAY against the trend line in 1972 as it was the only state for McGovern.

Yeah, but they still voted for Reagan. Minnesota is slightly better, mostly b/c of Mondale.
Minnesota went wron way in 1968, 1980, 1984, 1988, and 2000.  So that's 5.

I just pointed out MA because it was the only McGovern state.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #3 on: February 05, 2004, 03:53:38 PM »

You get a number of states who were "anti-bellwethers" for a period of their history. In 1948-68 it's the Deep South.
In 1880-1908 it's Nevada

Year  National Winner Nevada Winner
1880 Republicans       Democrats
1884 Democrats         Republicans
1888 Republicans       Republicans
1892 Democrats         Populists
1896 Repubicans        Democrats
1900 Republicans       Democrats
1904 Republicans       Republicans
1908 Republicans       Democrats

I find that quite impressive. Since 1912, moreover, Nevada has been a great bellwether. The only time they got it wrong is 1976.
Good Work!  It's amazing that a state would go against the trend that many times in a row.
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