New Tradesports rankings

[© tweed]

winning individual: Gore 8.4 Obama 7.2

[© tweed]

makes you think they know something we don't.

[© tweed]

I'm not.  if they really know something the stock would be much higher.  besides I doubt Gore would like his advisors making money off of a conspiracy.

or maybe it's Al himself.  he could probably rake in millions by bidding low and then declaring, then dropping out a week later.  that's what I'd do if I was in his situations.  bid at 10, declare, sell at 50, and then drop out.  $$$$$$$.

[© tweed]

Gore's bid and offer are now at or above 12.0 for the first time since March, I believe.  the stock is on absolute fire right now and he's one more push away from overtaking Obama, probably for the first time in 2007.

[© tweed]

Gore tied with Obama at last transaction (13.0)

[© tweed]

Gore has surpassed Obama in the Dem. nom. market for 2nd place on last transaction (13.1 v. 12.0 and leads by more on a bid-ask split (Gore 13.65 Obama 11.7)

[© tweed]

Probability that they win if they get the nomination
Winning individual / Nomination Odds

Gore 97
Clinton 66.6
Edwards 63
Obama 58.9
Paul 45
Thompson 40.6
Giuliani 38.7
McCain 37
Romney 30.0

Tradesports just gets crazier and crazier every time I look at numbers like this.

the market isn't meant to be extrapolated like that.  don't read too far into it.

[© tweed]

Gore's stock has crashed and burned with his repeat announcement that he "has no plans" to run for president again.

[© tweed]

That's an epic collapse for Gore.  He's down to 4.8 right now, which means the Gore shares have lost more than 50% of their value in just the last 12 hours.  And as far as I can tell, it's not because of any one event that occured yesterday or today.  It's just because the market suddenly realized that the Gore shares were absurdly overvalued.  Oh, and he's down to 4.4 in the winning individual market, so there's been a huge collapse there as well.

it's due to a quote from Gore.  read my first post on this page.

[© tweed]

What's shocking though is that Gore went up AT ALL since 2005 since he said he wasn't running several times between that and his peak. You think Gore could've just said "I'm not running" and that would be the end of it, like Kerry and Warner. But apparently he has just too many idiot fanboys.

Kerry and Warner explicitly stated that they would not seek the presidency in 2008.  Gore has instead always said that he "has no plans" which is why his stock still has activity - he still has not actually said that he will not seek the presidency in 2008.  if he did, his stock would probably fall to below 1.0.

[© tweed]

can't cool Al Gore down!  8.4

[© tweed]

Mitt's bid and ask are both above 30 (30.0/30.5) for what I believe is the first time ever.

[© tweed]

Al Gore

p.s.   buy Romney hardcore

[© tweed]

Giuliani is so overvalued it hurts...

[© tweed]

eyes toward the NH Republican market

Romney 55.8
Field 28.9
McCain, Huckabee, Giuliani 7.0
Thompson, Hagel, Gingrich no-bid

wtf?  who are the field people betting on?  Ron Paul?

[© tweed]

2008.GOP.NOM.BLOOMBERG is back on with a bid of 0.2, for whatever reason.

[© tweed]

McCain > Romney in NH market.

[© tweed]

McCain > Romney in NH market.

and Hillary > Obama in the bid column in the IA market (although Obama still leads last transaction).

[© tweed]

also BLOOMBERG.08.INDEPENDENT is way down in the single digits.  it seems to be undervalued...

[© tweed]

Clinton's overvalued

[© tweed]

you flipped the Huck/Romney numbers in IA.  but last transaction isn't terribly meaningful as it's wacky right now; the current IA bids are Huck 36.0, Romney 33.4.

[© tweed]

McCain has surged to 20.2 (with a higher bid/ask) to hit 20 for what appears to be the first time since Memorial Day.

[© tweed]

Giuliani still in the lead? Jesus Christ.

and he's had a good couple of days on the market, too.

[© tweed]

Romney has passed Giuliani for the lead in the Iowa Electronic Markets.



at the end of yesterday it was

Romney 29.9
Giuliani 26.2
McCain 20.2
Huckabee 12.2
Rest of Field 7.3
Thompson 4.0

[© tweed]

Democrats



Clinton 64.0
Obama 25.5
Edwards 10.2
Rest of Field 2.2