If Trotsky won the power struggle

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If Leon Trotsky defeated Joseph Stalin in the Soviet power struggle in the 1920's, would:

a) the Soviet Union have existed by 1940ish
b) the Axis powers have won World War II

Discuss.

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In any case, it's quite likely Soviet Russia would have fallen to the Nazis in WW2. While Trotsky was arguably more benevolent than Stalin, it was precisely Stalin's psychotic ruthlessness that contributed to the Red Army turning the tide at the eastern Front. When the RA was defending Moscow, Stalin basically ordered anyone who refused to fight to be shot immediately. I doubt Trotsky would have done likewise. But then I guess that's neither here nor there.

Your reasoning is represented by the Stalin quote "In the Soviet Army, it takes more courage for a man to retreat than to advance".  (Or something along those lines)  There is no doubt a great reason for the ultimate success of the Soviet Union in WWII was Stalin's method of handling the military.

But the main reason I feel Stalin prepared the USSR for war and the main reason they were able to defeat the Nazis was his rapid industrialization of the Soviet Union.  Under his watch the USSR went from an undeveloped agriculturally based society to a world manufacturing power.  Of course, this started under Lenin (the Lenin quote goes something like "Socialism is Soviet power plus the electrification of the entire country".  'Socialism' isn't the first word of that quote, a word which eludes me, but it shows that technologically advancing the USSR was a goal of the CPSU from the very beginning.)  Industrialization surely would have occured to a degree under Trotsky, but not anywhere close to what Stalin was able to create and I feel a Trotsky-led CCCP would have been little match for Nazi Germany, even despite the harsh conditions at Stalingrad and some help from the USA.

Of course assuming the USSR would have survived until 1940 under Trotsky, which I'm not so sure it would.

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One thing to consider, a negative towards Stalin: he purged many of the most experienced generals in the Soviet army prior to WWII.  That couldn't have helped the Soviets at all.

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While the Soviet Union would likely have had somewhat less heavy industry, it would have otherwise been better off economically. 

Why do you feel this way?

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Ernest, I doubt that the USSR would have turned Democratic socialist under Trotsky (although it is possible, I suppose; he did lobby briefly at the 13th CPSU party conference for a potential multi-party system, and he was an early supported for a partial re-opening of the "grain market".)  But despite the claims of many Stalinists, he was not a capitalist and Trotskyism is the school of communist thought most loyal to the true ideals Marxism (in my opinion).

And if Trotsky had gone about with "less harsh introduction of collectivization than what occured with Stalin", would that really have been a good thing for the Soviet economy?  Under Stalin, soviet agricultural production increased exponentially from the end of the civil war.  And if they "had somewhat less heavy industry" under Trotsky than under Stalin, how could that have been good for a war effort spanning several years?

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I can't agree with you on the point that Trotsky would have been better for the Soviet economy than Stalin.  Stalin transformed the CCCP from a rural, primary agricultural society in which millions went without electricity into a global industrial and manufacturing superpower.  And once collectivization was complete, agricultural production reached and surpassed Czarist levels.

Trotsky's foreign policy?  He was more open and supportive of the possibility of remaining in WWI than Lenin and other Soviets, as a means of furthering the worldwide revolution.  I find it likely he would have gone on the offensive in Europe, particularly in fascist Italy and Germany with global support, in order to spread the workers' revolution.  Assuming the USSR was a major world economic power with long-term stability under him, of course.