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June 04, 2024, 05:35:00 PM
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Author Topic: From the sh**t you can't make up pile  (Read 11642 times)
© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« on: October 04, 2005, 05:26:51 PM »

This 'misunderstanding' by jfern is a classic.
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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1 on: October 04, 2005, 05:35:10 PM »


At least I don't argue that 940 heads and 60 tails aren't statistically significant for 9 months.

Nope; instead, you argue that they are statistically significant for nine months.
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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2 on: October 04, 2005, 05:43:33 PM »


At least I don't argue that 940 heads and 60 tails aren't statistically significant for 9 months.

Nope; instead, you argue that they are statistically significant for nine months.

What's wrong with arguing the correct position?

There's no correct answer; that's what debate is.  Don't claim that your side is right just because you agree with it.  The point of your comment, as would be understood by 99% of people reading it, would be that it's lame to argue something silly for 9 months.  You've done the same thing, but you justify it by claiming you're right.
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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #3 on: October 04, 2005, 05:49:56 PM »

A fair coin will not produce those numbers.
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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #4 on: October 04, 2005, 05:54:10 PM »

jfern, go flip a fair coin 1000 times.  Repeat over and over again.

You will NEVER get 940 heads.
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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #5 on: October 04, 2005, 05:59:15 PM »

It would not be significant because it would prove the coin is unfair, weighted to one side, etc.  A fair coin will not produce those numbers.  We're just going to keep going in circles here so I doubt I'll post again about coins.
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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #6 on: October 04, 2005, 06:11:12 PM »

A fair coin will not produce those numbers.

Ah, but that isn't question, in a statistical sense.  It is, can you say with 95% certainty that, using 940 heads out of 1000 tosses, that the coin will come up heads?

Interestingly, I've JFRAUD these two questions and still have not gotten an answer.

1. Okay, based on the 940 heads out of 1000 can you claim, with 95% certainty, that the coin comes up heads? 

2. Can you claim that the coin is behaving differently than expected values?

It's not a trick question.  Tweed, you want to try it?

I'll go no and yes.  The coin technically will still have a 50-50 chance of landing on either side.  For the second question, I believe you can.  The coin is expected to land on heads 500 times, and it lands heads 940 times.  That is behavior that deviates from that of what is expected.
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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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Posts: 36,562
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« Reply #7 on: October 04, 2005, 06:16:46 PM »

I believe the second one does.  Not as confident on this one as a I was on the first two.
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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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Posts: 36,562
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« Reply #8 on: October 04, 2005, 08:30:12 PM »

LOL at J.J. continuing to argue that 940 heads and 60 tails are not statistically significantly different from that of a fair coin.

LOL at jfern refusing to answer the two question JJ posed to him.
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