Election Odds

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You two are just fantastic at imagery.

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Bush v. Kerry won't be close, Bush will win hands down.

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02.16.04

260 days before election day, I will lowere Bush's chances of re-election from 65% to 50%.  If edwards was the nominee it would be 25%, but oh well.

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02.16.04

260 days before election day, I will lowere Bush's chances of re-election from 65% to 50%.  If edwards was the nominee it would be 25%, but oh well.

4.8.04

208 days before election day, I raise Bush's chances of re-election from 50% to 55%.  Bush is looking like a fairly weak candidate, but Kerry's Massachusettsism will ultimately mean a Bush second term.

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4/8/04

I'd put Bush's chances at 70%, the strength of the economy will be unquestioned come Nov.

I'm Mr. Pessimist, and I don't think it's that high.

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Bush 57.1%
Kerry 42.6%
other 0.3%

see also www.campaignline.com

those numbers look about right.

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Bush 52.6% chance, Kerry 47.4% chance

You have to allow at least .1% for 'other'.

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Bush 52.6% chance, Kerry 47.4% chance

You have to allow at least .1% for 'other'.

No I dont......these are my odds right now and i dont think anyone except these 2 will win.  i am not a professional pollster or oddsmaker.  i dont think there is .1% chance Nader or someone else wil win

What is Kerry gets shot and Gore becomes the nominee?  You have to account for things like that.

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Kerry 52.5%
Bush 47.0%
Other 0.5% (assasination, scandal, illness, whatever)

You flip your prediction around hourly, it seems.

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05.22.04

Bush re-election chances dropped from 55% to 50%.

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From americasline.com:

ODDS TO BE ELECTED
PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES IN 2004

George W. Bush- (R)- President- 4/5
John Kerry- (D) Massachusetts Senator- Even
Ralph Nader- (I) Consumer advocate- 5000/1

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NY Senate Race odds:

Odds of Chuck Schumer being re-elected- 98.37%

His opponent is a abolute joke.  Something Mills, a two-term state assemblyman (which is like our house of representatives.)  He trails in the latest poll 72-17%, and about 300 people came to the nominating convention.