French presidential election, 2017

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from looking around I couldn't find an existing thread for this topic.  if there is one, our dear Moderator can merge at his discretion.

here's my summary of what I could gather from the polls and gambling odds.  looks like the favorite is Sarkozy.  Le Pen is the favorite over Hollande to take second; if Hollande's numbers don't get better over the next year, he's likely to either be challenged or step down for the Socialist nomination.

in head-to-heads, the only chance Le Pen has to win in the second round is against the Socialist candidate.. the odds of Sarkozy not getting into the top two has to be long, 50/1, 75/1 type stuff.

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Is there any chance that Hollande might get dislodged as the nominee by someone like Harlem Desir?

Hollande-Royal showdown for the nomination would be the best theatre, no?

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the serious candidates should better wait for 2022. Better let Hollande lose and turn the page.

it's never better for parties as a whole to lose.  as our dear International Elections moderator once said, "parties survive on power, thrive on power, it's always better to have it".  though that obviously does not always hold true for certain superstars within the party.

if Hollande still has approvals in the mid-20s (or worse) I (as an outsider) can't imagine a viable or semi-viable politician to challenge him in the primary -- even if it's only Royal.

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You are right indeed. Also Hollande said many times that he won't run in 2017 if unemployment does not decrease. It's not easy to trust him, but he repeated it so often that he will inevitably be reminded of it.

there's always the Nixon solution to that -- change the definition of 'unemployment'.  but unless the reality on the ground changes in the next year he'll see the writing on the wall, you'd figure he would spare himself the humiliation of polling 17% to Le Pen's 27%.