2004 Democratic Primary

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Nova Scotia Poll:

Lib  29%
NDP 22%
CPC 19%
Other 7%
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Undecided 23%
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Omnifacts Bristol

I'm going to Nova Scotia in the summer.

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How does compas have the CPC within the MoE in Ontario?  Are they nuts?

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I still think they are nuts.
The CPC will get TRASHED in Toronto

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But Ontario is not just Toronto...

5/12 of it is...if the CPC only wins 2 or three seats in Toronto they will not win a substantial amount in Ontario

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Election Prediction says in Ontario: 57 seats for the LPC, compared to nine for the CPC and three for the NDP.

Sounds like the Libs will win by more than 3%

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Another thing: How do the steel people vote in hamilton?

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Another thing: How do the steel people vote in hamilton?

This year, almost certainly NDP

Thanks

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June 28th huh?

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Hey Al

I am expecting a seat-by-seat prediction from you.

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Okay...get at least 75% right though

I'll do Ontario...  

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Take a look at: http://www.electionprediction.org/2004_fed/index.html

I know that site.  I'll copy their picks, and make my one in races in which they deem too close to call.

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Zogby has Martin's approval at 26%...ick

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I completed my Ontario Predictions.

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2004 Canadian Federal Election-Ontario

Metro Toronto

Beaches-East York: NDP
Davenport: LPC
Don Valley East: LPC
Don Valley West: LPC
Eglinton-Lawrence: LPC
Etobicoke Centre: LPC
Etobichoke-Lakeshore: LPC
Etobichoke North: LPC
Parksdale-High Park: LPC
St. Paul’s: LPC
Scarborough-Agincourt: LPC
Scarborough-Centre: LPC
Scarborough-Guildwood: LPC
Scarborough-Rouge River: LPC
Scarborough-Southwest: LPC
Toronto Centre: LPC
Toronto-Danforth: NDP
Trinity-Spadina: NDP
Willowdale: CPC
York Centre: LPC
York South-Weston: LPC
York West: LPC

Total for Urban Toronto: LPC 18, NDP 3, CPC 1

905 Suburbs

Ajax-Pickering: LPC
Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale: CPC
Bramaela-Gore-Malton: CPC
Brampton-Springdale: LPC
Brampton West: CPC
Burlington: CPC
Clarington-Scugog-Uxbridge: CPC
Dufferin-Caledon: CPC
Halton: CPC
Hamilton-Centre: NDP
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek: NDP
Hamilton Mountain: NDP
Markham-Unionville: LPC
Mississauga-Brampton South: LPC
Mississauga East-Cookville: LPC
Mississauga-Erindale: LPC
Mississauga South: CPC
Mississauga-Streetsville: LPC
Newmarket-Aurora: CPC
Niagra Falls: CPC
Niagra West-Glanbrook: CPC
Oak Ridges-Markham: CPC
Oakville: CPC
Oshawa: CPC
Pickering-Scarborough East: LPC
Richmond Hill: LPC
Saint Catherines: LPC
Thornhill: LPC
Vaughan: LPC
Welland: LPC
Whitby-Oshawa: LPC
York-Simcoe: CPC

Total for the 905 Suburbs: CPC 15, LPC 13, NDP 3

Ottawa & Eastern Toronto

Carleton-Lanark: CPC
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell: LPC
Haliburton-Kawartha-Lakes-Brock: CPC
Kingston and The Islands: LPC
Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington: CPC
Leeds-Greenville: CPC
Nepean-Carleton: CPC
Northumberland-Quinte West: CPC
Ottawa-Centre: NDP
Ottawa-Orleans: CPC
Ottawa-South: LPC
Ottawa-Vanier: LPC
Ottawa West-Napean: LPC
Peterborough: LPC
Prince Edward-Hastings: CPC
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke: CPC
Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry: LPC

Total for Ottawa & Eastern Toronto: CPC 9, LPC 7, NDP 1

North[/u]

Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing: LPC
Kenora: LPC
Nickel Belt: LPC
Nipissing-Timiskaming: LPC
Parry Sound-Muskoka: CPC
Sault St. Marie: NDP
Sudbury: LPC
Thunder Bay-Rainy River: CPC
Thunder Bay-Superior North: LPC
Timmins-James Bay: LPC

Total for The North: LPC 7, CPC 2, NDP 1

Southwest

Cambridge: CPC
Chatham-Kent-Essex: LPC
Elgin-Middlesex-London: CPC
Essex: LPC
Grey-Bruce-Owen Sound: CPC
Guelph: LPC
Haldimand-Norfolk: LPC
Brant: LPC
Huron-Bruce: LPC
Kitchener Centre: LPC
Kitchener-Conestoga: LPC
Kitchener-Waterloo: LPC
London-Fanshawe: LPC
London North Centre: LPC
London West: LPC
Middlesex-Kent-Lambton: LPC
Oxford: CPC
Perth-Wellington: CPC
Sarnia-Lambton: LPC
Barrie: CPC
Simcoe North: CPC
Simcoe-Grey: CPC
Wellington-Halton Hills: CPC
Windsor-Tecumseh: NDP
Windsor-West: NDP

Total for The Southwest: LPC 14, CPC 8, NDP 2

Total for Ontario: LPC 59, CPC 35, NDP 10

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Rip away.

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By how much do they (CPC) lead in Brampton West (My riding)?

Siege

Not by much, but I think Clement's national name recognition will carry him to victory.

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Al-

I have no doubts about Hamilton Centre.  It will go NDP.  East-Stoney Creek probably will...but I have a few doubts.  As you said, Hamilton Mountain is the LEAST likely, but I think the NDP will squeak one out there.

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I voted Dean in this poll but now would change my vote to Edwards.

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NCF?  Be a man.  Make the pick.

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Is there any way we can make maps?

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There *are* GIS maps available... I just need someone who goes to a Canadian University to do some hunting for us!

I think Canadian Observer does

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I can only find links to sites stating Reagan trailed Mondale by 9 points in 1983.  Im not sure where I heard the 30% figure (maybe I was thinking of Clinton trailing Dole in 95, or maybe Im thinking Reagan in late 82).  

But, even trailing by 9% in 83 and winning by 18% in 84, shows that the undercurrrents during 83 were tilted heavily toward Reagan.

I think you are think how Reagan trailed Carter by 31% in 1/80.

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A cool little graphic I got from pollingreport.

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Will the debates be on CSPAN or something?

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Thanks guys

Go LPC!

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If the LPC and the NDP semi-unite they can fend off the conservatives.

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If the LPC and the NDP semi-unite they can fend off the conservatives.

That will never happen

You're probably right