Intrade has "Gaddafi to no longer be leader of Libya before midnight ET 31 Aug 2011" trading at 70.0 right now.
Uh....how are they determining "leader of Libya"?
*Settlement (expiry) will be based on the status of Muammar al-Gaddafi as leader of Libya. If there is any ambiguity over this status Intrade reserves the absolute right to determine how this market will be settled (when and at what price). This will be done using all reliable mainstream information that is publicly available at that time. Intrade reserves the right to wait for further information before settling this or any other market.