Best case scenario

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Best-case scenario for KErry:



Kerry 416
Bush 122

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Best case scenario for Bush:



Bush 461
Kerry 77

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On Kerry's map add Georgia, SD, and Kansas.

On Bush's map add Connecticut and take Vermont away.

Vermont is not that heavily Democratic.  Gore only won 50.63% there, compared to 55.91% in Connecticut.

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Bush will lose by quite a bit more there this time.

Why's that?

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Bush is the anti-independent, and the state is pretty non-partisan, and therefore more Bush hating.

That doesn't make much sense

Kerry will probably take 53-54% in VT because Nader got 7% there.

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Bush won't win MD or NJ.

If Osama is caught or "caught", he might.

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This kind of depends on the defintion of best case scenario. If it turns out that Bush staged 9/11 to be able to selll oil contracts to his and his buddie's companies in Texas after the occupation of Iraq, for example, he could lose rather a lot. Etc. Unless one supposes an extreme of some sort occuring I think Bush can be fairly sure of breaking 200, or at least 150. Kerry is more vulnreable though.

by best case scenario, I mean nothing really really drastic happens, but what could happen is Iraqi civil war, economic downturn, etc.  If something crazy comes out (like if 9-11 was staged, etc.) Bush could lose all 50 states.

If you don't rule anything out, either guy could get 538 EV's.

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Also Indiana to the Dems, if Bayh is the VP.

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I doubt that Indiana would go to the Dem even with Bayh on the tickker having said that where he on the ticket IN would be very interesting to watch...it could certianly be close....Generally your map is pretty much the greatest extent to which the Dems could hope to beat any candidate, however i wonder if GA and IN are going for Bush why not NC even with Edwards the state is as conservative as either IN or GA...

We're talking best-case scenario.

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Best case scenario for Bush:



Bush 461
Kerry 77

even if that happened, bush wouldnt win my state of NJ

Yea, dude.  He gets our state and I'll be stunned.  We're smarter than that.  

Didn't want to offend any of you New Jerseyans (but we all think you're stupid here in NY), but this is a best-case scenario for Bush.