Could someone be so kind as to update me on UK politics in regards to why everyone's saying Cameron's going down?
I don't follow day-to-day international politics so much. Is it the economy? EU negotiations? Is it the Scotland thing? I see he's being blasted from both the left and the right for a lot of things, especially immigration and the rise of UKIP. Could Miliband be the next PM?
What is going on, exactly?
It could yet be just mid-term blues... The Conservatives trailed in polls since the unpopular 2012 budget, but recently they've bounced back and are more competitive with Labour, usually about 2% behind, leading in some polls. Ukip began as a vote sink for disaffected Tories and has morphed into a rally point for the disaffected of all parties and none. However, due to the UK's electoral geography (e.g. higher voter turnout in Conservative constituencies), the Conservatives need a big lead either to beat Labour in seats or to win a majority government and avoid coalition. The Lib Dems have still lost about 6% of their 23% support from 2010 to Labour and 4% each to the Greens and (Tories+Ukip) but luckily for them the losses are hugely concentrated in places where they weren't winning.
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