European Elections 2014 (France)

[swl]

I would also say that it is not likely at all, maybe also between 5 and 10%.
Her chances of winning in 2017 are 0% in my opinion, we will either have Hollande or the UMP candidate. Le Pen accessing the secound round is likely but she would be defeated by a large margin (not 82-12 this time, but still something like 70-30).

It is difficult to predict what could happen in 2022 since a lot will happen in the economy, in European politics and French politics by then. For example, I am not sure the UMP would survive a new defeat in 2017.

On a different topic, what do you think of the turnout in the next elections? I have the feeling that the declining trend will be reversed because for the first time people realize that European politics do matter. The media and the French politicians have never talked so much about the EU and I think the turnout will be higher in 2009. Even the FN who was until now considering these elections as non relevant is now taking them seriously and is really entering into European politics, with the EFA.
I find it somehow ironic to see eurosceptics across Europe adopting the rules of an institution they are supposed to despise.

I also think that many of the FN supporters are deluded. They genuinely thought that they could win in 2012, and they still genuinely think that they will win several new cities this year in the municipal elections, that they will arrive first in the European elections and win the presidential election in 2017. I suspect that some of the new voters will return to disillusion and abstention after some time.

[swl]

I think on the contrary that turnout will keep on dropping, as nobody sees what the f[inks] the EP has to do with their lives. I'm betting on 33-35%.

I am not surprised by the result, and I am quite optimistic for the European elections in the future. For the first time, the media actually explained how the EU works and what the EP does. During the evening on TV and yesterday on the newspapers they talked about the results in the other countries. It's the first time this kind of thing happens in France.
And I think there is a lot of room for improvement (for example with a televised debate dubbed in French among the Commission President candidates).