Professor Lichtmann predicts Presidential Race for 2016

[SWE]

The keys don't even retroactively work: they predicted a Tilden victory in 1876, Cleveland in 1884, and Wilson in 1916.

[SWE]

Remember when he predicted the Hillary win and got a lot of praise?

No?

[SWE]

Sanchez, he hasn't come up too much this year, but it was pretty ridiculous of you to assume that someone on a forum dedicated to US elections wouldn't have heard of him.

The keys don't even retroactively work: they predicted a Tilden victory in 1876, Cleveland in 1884, and Wilson in 1916.

1876 was stolen, you forgot that.

No, the winner of the election was made president.

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His book?

[SWE]

The keys don't even retroactively work: they predicted a Tilden victory in 1876, Cleveland in 1884, and Wilson in 1916.

Yes, they do, if you adjust his prediction to work for the popular vote and not the EC. Tilden in 1876 and Cleveland in 1884 both won the popular vote in their elections. Wilson won his election in 1916 in both the PV and the EC. If you meant to say he predicted Hughes in 1916, then that would have been his one and only error

I'm aware that the keys are intended to count popular vote. The issue is, with the margins as close as they were in the three elections I referenced, the popular vote was almost certainly swung by suppression of the African American vote in the South.

[SWE]

The media are saying he called the election correctly, but I thought the Lichtmann model was for predicting the PV winner. 

Right, but he ended up correctly calling Clinton as the popular vote winner since the third party key didn't end up turning against the Democrats after all since Johnson got under 5 percent of the vote.

On the other hand, this is only because he arbitrarily redefined the primary challenge key. Using the standard he applied to every prior election, Hillary had 6 keys against her, as Bernie was able to hold her below 66% of delegates.