There has been very little head-to-head polling of Collins vs. Gideon (and the few recent ones we've had show a close race), so I would hesitate to call this Lean D yet. It should also be noted that in the past much of Collins' disapproval in past polling came from conservative Republicans who would ultimately vote for her.
With that said, the trajectory of the race is clearly not favorable to Collins and it should be much more competitive than some here were initially expecting.
Definitely. The poll linked above has her with a positive approval from 20% of Democrats. Although Gideon can feasibly win with Collins' current approval ratings as it stands, Gideon should continue to try to get the Dem approval of Collins to 10% or less. Would make defeating Collins much more manageable in a marginal/leans D state. Because as you said, Republicans who disapprove of Collins will come home (even if it's in second or third rounds in the ranked-choice situation).
