California House Races Megathread (user search)
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  California House Races Megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: California House Races Megathread  (Read 41001 times)
Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
Joshua
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,710
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -5.91

« on: September 01, 2018, 01:06:29 AM »

McClintock will underwhelm, but still win. 54-46 probably.
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
Joshua
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,710
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -5.91

« Reply #1 on: September 18, 2018, 11:45:57 AM »

Interesting. Why would a Clinton +8 district shift so hard to Republicans? And why does Cisneros already have an underwater favorability?

Cisneros is leading among Asian voters by only 2 points (43%-41%), losing badly even among whites with college degrees, and while he’s doing well with Hispanics, they’re not really planning to vote. He’s a pretty brazen carpetbagger (he moved from Maxine Waters’s district in LA) and is getting hit hard over the sexual harassment allegations on TV.

Democrats nominated a very flawed candidate, Republicans nominated their best recruit of the cycle, and invested enough money to shift it towards Team Red.

Kim is well-liked and voters think she’s in tune with the district. She’s the new Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, basically.

Is this sarcastic?

She won an Assembly District during an abysmal turnout year in the 2014 wave. Then promptly lost in 2016.

The only reason she has opened a lead is because Cisneros is a poor candidate. This seat will be a tossup in 2020, and the district will not be "oMg tItANiuM R" with her as the incumbent.
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
Joshua
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,710
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -5.91

« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2018, 12:23:14 AM »
« Edited: September 25, 2018, 12:30:47 AM by Joshua »

Amazing that Pat Bates is running for reelection -- she's got to be as old as Feinstein and Brown. She's been representing me in some fashion as long as I can remember. She was a dinosaur even back when I met her during her tenure on the BoS 10+ years ago.

She always stood out when you'd see pictures of the BoS in places like the Recorder's office. Her picture next to Janet Nguyen, Shawn Nelson, and Todd Spitzer emphasized the stark age gap. That was a pretty young group of Supes.

It's unfortunate she never made the leap to Congress. She would have been much better than John Campbell, Darrell Issa, or Mimi.
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