You're understanding of Kentucky politics is hilarious.
Uh, I've lived in Kentucky for almost 43 years.
And it seems that your understanding of KY politics is from 43 years ago. Most of my friends still live in Kentucky and so does my immediate family. They have a completely different view of what is going on than you do.
Kentucky is a Conservative state. The KDP was very impressive, holding on to power as long as it did, but the times they are a changin'.
Potential confirmation bias?
Those are national polls. The people of Iowa's opinion of him does not change the fact that Bandit is completely wrong about Kentucky politics.
Personally, I don't think it involves a lot of wizardry to infer that his approval ratings are dropping in Kentucky, emulating the national polls.
But don't get me wrong though, I still think Rand is in a safe seat.
[Edit]: Plus, I agree with you about taking Bandit's Kentucky analysis with a barrel of salt.