Early 2016 Senate Ratings

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Alabama --> safe R
Alaska --> safe R
Arizona --> leans R
Arkansas --> safe R; tossup if Gov. Mike Beebe (D) runs
California --> safe D
Colorado --> leans D
Connecticut --> safe D
Florida --> tossup
Georgia --> leans R
Hawaii --> safe D
Idaho --> safe R
Illinois --> leans D
Indiana --> likely R; tossup if ex Sen. Evan Bayh (D) runs and Coats retires
Iowa --> likely R
Kansas --> safe R
Kentucky --> tossup; assuming Gov. Beshear (D) runs and Paul runs for president
Louisiana --> safe R
Maryland --> safe D
Missouri --> leans R; leans D if Gov. Jay Nixon (D) runs
Nevada --> tossup; leans D if Harry Reid isn't on the ballot
New Hampshire --> leans R
New York --> safe D
North Carolina --> leans R
North Dakota --> safe R
Ohio --> tossup
Oklahoma --> safe R
Oregon --> safe D
Pennsylvania --> tossup
South Carolina --> safe R
South Dakota --> safe R
Utah --> safe R; leans R if Rep. Jim Matheson (D) runs
Vermont --> safe D
Washington --> safe D
Wisconsin --> tossup

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

South Carolina - Safe R (I'd personally like to see Scott retire just since the GOP will use him to show how open they are to African American rights)

Why would he retire? He's young and just got in the Senate. Who cares about the fact that he's black.

I'll give you credit on a decent Kentucky rating though. Different from the good amount of dems who think Kentucky is a "toss-up", which is just unthinkable.
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I'd consider it a tossup in the circumstance that Paul runs for president (he cannot simultaneously run for president and be on the KY senate ballot) and that a popular term limited governor runs for senate.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Seriously, it's too early.

It's never too early for political analysis!

I hate pundits who are already on cable news talking about 2016, but then I turn around and do this on my own time...