Philippine General (Presidential, Congress and Local) Elections - May 9, 2016

[Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN]

Any opinions about the upcoming May 9 elections in the Philippines?

I would just like to get or see your opinions about the issues, candidates, platforms, etc.

[Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN]

The Philippines has truly one of the worst electoral systems I have ever encountered. Who was responsible for this monstrosity? I presume America was.

For all intents and purposes, the presidential race is a four-way tie. What a disaster.

I don't think so America is responsible. After the Americans gave independence to the Filipinos in 1946, it was a two-party system when it comes to elections. Now, after the Marcos years, there were a lot of political parties.

[Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN]

The Philippines has truly one of the worst electoral systems I have ever encountered. Who was responsible for this monstrosity? I presume America was.

For all intents and purposes, the presidential race is a four-way tie. What a disaster.

I don't think so America is responsible. After the Americans gave independence to the Filipinos in 1946, it was a two-party system when it comes to elections. Now, after the Marcos years, there were a lot of political parties.

What's absurd is that there are so many political parties in a first-past-the-post system. Duverger is rolling in his grade. Fidel Ramos won his election with 23% of the vote!

Luckily, it seems Duterte is pulling away with the race, so maybe the system works after all.

Yes, he's like a teflon on the polls. Unharmed.

[Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN]

8 days left before the election!

[Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN]

Can we just burn Mindanao?

There are a few Muslims there, so no.

Especially on the southernmost part, also known as Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao.

[Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN]

Question: There is a presidential candidate, which you may have already heard about because of his "controversial" remarks/jokes, Mayor Rodrigo Duterte of Davao City, who promotes the idea of Federalism. What will be your stance about the Philippines being a federal country.

[Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN]

Duterte leads by 12 points in latest poll.

[Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN]

If I'm not mistaken. The final poll shows that Davao City Mayor Rody Duterte is leading in the presidential race by 11 points. Meanwhile, in the VP race, Sen. Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. and Rep. Leni Robredo are in a dead heat.

Initial and Unofficial results will be available by evening, Philippine Standard Time tomorrow, May 9

[Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN]

This is really, really sad. I wish Roxas or at least Poe could somehow pull of an upset, but that seems basically impossible at this point.

For some reason Roxas always leads in D' Strafford polls.

Some columnists/blogger are discrediting the poll. I also, when I looked at their twitter page (D'Strafford).

[Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN]

This is really, really sad. I wish Roxas or at least Poe could somehow pull of an upset, but that seems basically impossible at this point.

I hate Roxas, due to his "little mishaps" as Interior Secretary. And Poe, due to her short experience in politics, also with her issue/controversy regarding her and her family's American citizenship. I liked the idea of Philippines embracing federalism. Duterte's law and order platform also made me to support him

[Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN]

Given the surge in turnout the total number of votes Duterte will get will easily outstrip what Benigno Aquino got back in 2010 and set a new record on largest number of votes in Philippines election history.

Duterte not claiming victory yet, said that he'll sleep for the mean time. He's not there yet (victory). He might also break the percentage of Noynoy Aquino got in 2010. 

[Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN]

What a comeback from the Marcos clan if Ferdinand "Bongbong" keeps it up.  TV5-SWS exit poll has Marcos up 34.9 vs 32.5 Robredo.  So far he is beating the exit polls.

It's still very close. But looking at the other candidates, it's only Marcos and Robredo who are close in terms of the popular vote.

[Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN]

Given the surge in turnout the total number of votes Duterte will get will easily outstrip what Benigno Aquino got back in 2010 and set a new record on largest number of votes in Philippines election history.

It was Ferdinand Marcos (Sr.) in 1981 who got the largest number of popular votes. 18 million.

[Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN]

With 84% of the precincts in. It is

Duterte                    38.6%
Poe                          22.9%
Roxas                       21.8%
Binay                       13.0%
Defensor-Santiago      3.6%

Poe continues to rise relative to everyone else.

For Vice-President, Macros's lead continues to shrink to below 1%

Marcos                 35.3%
Robredo               34.6%
Cayetano             14.2%

COMELEC is showing a different picture. Roxas is currently 2nd, Poe is 3rd.

[Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN]

Marcos leads by 150,000 votes with around 36 millions votes cast.

[Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN]

I am thinking if this is the Florida 2000 of the Philippines. But looking at the map of their strongholds. There is still a substantial amount of votes to be counted on both sides.

[Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN]

Marcos leads by 150,000 votes with around 36 millions votes cast.

Hmmm .. I get my result from http://election2016.ppcrv.org/wall/vicepresident.php which has
86.47% of the precincts and

1   FERDINAND JR. MARCOS    12,593,119   35.08%
2   MARIA LEONOR ROBREDO  12,476,529   34.76%
 
with a gap of only 117K. Your source might be more up-to-date.  If so then Marcos has it in the bag because so far the trend seems to be moving against him. 

I am getting it from the results shown at the election night coverage of GMA News. It was from the GMA-Comelec tally.

[Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN]

With  88.45% of the precincts counted it is

1   FERDINAND JR. MARCOS   12,798,960      34.9%   
2   MARIA LEONOR ROBREDO 12,777,952      34.84%   

Which means it is now neck-to-neck.  Going by trends it seems Marcos might have lost.  But I guess a lot will depend on which  precincts are outstanding.

6,000 vote lead by Marcos as of now. Wow. Florida 2000 in the making.

[Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN]

Map of Vice President race so far

If you will check the turnout per province in which Marcos or Robredo is leading, you can see that there is still some provinces on both sides that have a substantial amount of votes to be counted

[Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN]

Robredo now leads by 600 votes

[Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN]

Looks like the Trump of the Philippines Duterte wins...

Are we going to call every single candidate who makes controversial comments and is an asshole a 'Trump' now? That's really dumb.

Its is really not me.  Multiple media sources like CNN, Foreign Policy Magazine, Daily Beast, NBC etc etc have all referred him to the the Trump of the Philippines

You mean journalists covering foreign elections make dumb comparisons? Shocking.

Well, he is saying that he has different qualities from Trump

[Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN]

On the other hand, Rep. Manny Pacquiao wins a senate seat

[Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN]

According to polls and initial returns, Marcos will fare well in overseas votes

[Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN]

Did crime get a lot worse in the Philippines last few years or did income distribution get a lot worse?  The economic situation seems fairly positive under Aquino.  Why would Duterte surge like this?

I think it's both. Crime's always been at the forefront but I would imagine the idea that Duterte somehow stopped Cebu's reputation of being a huge danger zone for the past few decades is probably seen as progress by a lot of people. Combine that with the fact that that his region has been growing economically at a relatively faster pace probably gave a lot of people a belief that Duterte would allow for economic opportunities for all social classes as a lot of the economic growth has benefited wealthier parts of Philippine society. Lastly, there's always been some in Philippine society who believe that the country requires "discipline" and was left behind by other East Asian countries due to a lack of said discipline (as you can imagine many of these people were rather equivocal toward Marcos's legacy as well).

On the other hand, Rep. Manny Pacquiao wins a senate seat

And I continue to weep.

You mean Davao City not Cebu right?

[Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN]

Can someone explain to me why it takes so much time to declare the winner, even though we pretty much already know who's that?

Accdg. to the PH constitution, the OFFICIAL CANVASSING will be done (for Pres and VP) by a joint session of the House and the Senate. And yes, it hasn't started yet.