Nate Silver believes Democrats will not suffer from low turnout in the 2022 midterms

[Matty]

I mean, this is all relative. Wasn't gop turnout actually pretty high in 2018, just not high enough.....

The issue for BOTH the dems and the reps at this point is that trump is not on the ballot.

All those previously apolitical wine moms in the suburbs with hr jobs who never really voted before  2018 and 2020 are going to be much less likely to give a crap about politics now that the orange cheeto they hate is gone

All those previously apolitical joe blows in rural areas who saw their steel job go bye-bye 15 years ago is going to be much less likely to give a crap about politics now that the orange god emperor they fellatio'd is gone.

[Matty]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1380190906150752258?s=20

College educated voters are more likely to vote in midterms then WWC voters, which helps Democrats. Minority voters voting at lower numbers does hurt Democrats. The midterm dynamic used to benefit Republicans but with the education divide starting, both sides have downsides.

This is true, but the areas of the nation where college whites are firmly dem now are areas that are already safe dem

In the swing districts of Atlanta, Texas, etc, college whites are still much more open to the GOP.

Whites with a degree are not a monolithic group interstate-wise