CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Matty]

It blows me away that there are STILL red avatars on here claiming Orange County is going to vote against the recall

Orange County is going to likely be +10 or more in favor of recall

[Matty]

It’s kind of a bad look to admit the mail in ballots will “save” newsome

Openly confessing what the gop has been saying: mail in ballots are a ploy to help democrats

It’s an abuse. In my view.

Elected officials using taxpayer money to personally solve their turnout problems is an appalling betrayal of public trust.

Governments shouldn’t make it hard to vote, but they also shouldn’t be in the business of maximizing turnout either.

If a Mexican in imperial county doesn’t care about the recall, who cares? If a 21 year old college student doesn’t care, why should the govt try to get them to vote?

[Matty]

139,127 ballots returned

Democrats 86,139 (61.9%)
Ind/Other 30,054 (21.6%)
Republicans 22,934 (16.5%)

https://twitter.com/CA_120/status/1428375841877069833/photo/1

uhhh....this doesn't suggest a close race at all.

At all

[Matty]

The ballot returns so far look identical to 2020.

The polls are missing something

[Matty]

I’m seeing some Twitter chatter that non citizens and people living out of state are being mailed ballots

That is unacceptable even if rare

I mean come the hell on. How hard is it to control mail flow?

These usps workers have one job that isnt rocket science. I expect them to do it mistake free

[Matty]

I’m seeing soooo many recall newsom signs here in mission viejo in Orange
County

This is a city that voted dem for the first time EVER in 2020

[Matty]

This recall is a joke.

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2021/09/02/newsom-has-strong-support-in-latest-california-recall-survey-1390636

This should be news to no-one. 

I don't think it will be that wide a margin, but I think 2 things happened that helped newsom

1) elder is running on a platform way to the right of the state.

2) the mailing of ballots got democrats to realize there was an election.

I do think it is a bad thing in the long run for my state though. I think it is very reasonable to believe that one party rule leads to bad policy.

We saw that first hand in CA with that absurd AB5 law that banned people from seeking work as independent contractors. It messed up so many lives.

A GOP governor would at least lead to gridlock.

[Matty]

I keep on getting texts from gop groups telling me I haven't returneed my ballot, despite the fact that i DID weeks ago. According to the sos website, my ballot was received.

Is this something I should be worried about or do these groups send spam texts to everyone?

[Matty]

https://twitter.com/vanceulrich/status/1437243920845393930?s=21

This just doesn't add up. The polls have newsom surviving about 57-43.

That's 15 points lower than Biden's victory in 2020, when OC went for him by 9.

If Newsom survives by 14 and wins OC or barely loses it......then where else in CA did he lose more relative support?

Romney lost CA by 25 points while winning OC by 7.

In 2014, jerry brown won CA by 21 points and lost OC by 11 points

If Newsom ends up winning OC, then there is some other area/region of California where his support has collapsed to make it a 15 point underperformance for him compared to biden.

[Matty]

These county polls might be picking up what’s about to happen. A tied OC is implying a 20-22 point race. This is also backed up by some of the polling.

Could be.

OC is the only real interest of me for this race right now as the result is already known.

I want to see what happens in some of these D held seats in south oc.

katie porter specifically.

[Matty]

These county polls might be picking up what’s about to happen. A tied OC is implying a 20-22 point race. This is also backed up by some of the polling.

Could be.

OC is the only real interest of me for this race right now as the result is already known.

I want to see what happens in some of these D held seats in south oc.

katie porter specifically.

You do realize Newsom lost a few of the seats Dems won in 2018? And the gubernatorial elections in general - especially weird ones like this - can and do have a wider range of outcomes than the polarized national results? (though not as wide as the ginormous landslide potentials of yesteryear) I do think the district breakdown of yes/no will be interesting, but taking it any further is asking to be disappointed.

I know, but it's all we have at this point, lol.

VA is also sort of a foregone conclusion, but perhaps the results there on a district level might be informative than what happens in CA? Who knows.

[Matty]

What percentage of romney 2012 voters will vote to keep newsom?

10%? 15%?

[Matty]

Maybe it was safe all along and I was too bullish on the GOP from the start, but I can't help but think that the California GOP would have done much better here by doing anything other than what they did. They consolidated behind a candidate who is so crazy that he'd be a liability even in a red state, deliberately nationalized the race and sought attention, and then declared that the election was going to be rigged.

When this started out there was support for recall from independents, and even a decent chunk of Democrats. It wasn't getting the attention Dems wanted it to be getting, and Republicans were engaged. Their actions these past few weeks have reversed all of that. My new prediction of No +16% is still probably going to underpredict the margin at this rate.

the republicans basically did the exact opposite of EVERYTHING dems dd in alabama in 2017.

[Matty]

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1437893465430380544?s=20

The CA GOP sucks so much lmfao.

Question for those who follow international politics: are there any other major nations in the world where the largest region/state in that nation has such an ineffective,dumb, and weak 2nd party as ca and the gop?

It seems unprecedented

[Matty]

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1437893465430380544?s=20

The CA GOP sucks so much lmfao.

Question for those who follow international politics: are there any other major nations in the world where the largest region/state in that nation has such an ineffective,dumb, and weak 2nd party as ca and the gop?

It seems unprecedented

Bavaria is the second largest state in Germany and its a one-party monopoly. Plenty of other examples, but that's the obvious one. Usually when a party dominates a large area it has a weaker than average showing in the majority of the rest...which is accurate.

What percent of Bavaria is controlled by center right parties?

I doubt it’s as dominated as CA is

[Matty]

Biden at 56-41 approval in CA isn’t great in the long run

[Matty]

If it’s a 56-41 result then I think the recall will narrowly carry OC.

[Matty]

This will be called at close too

I’m interested in seeing how my own city, mission viejo, will vote

It voted Biden for the first time in its 60 year history

This was a Romney +25 city

[Matty]

This will be called at close too

I’m interested in seeing how my own city, mission viejo, will vote

It voted Biden for the first time in its 60 year history

This was a Romney +25 city

Jesus Christ. What happened in Mission Viejo? It’s a bunch of middle class white people. What did they see in Biden?

Not a psycho?

Plus, basically everyone in MV went, is going, or will be college educated in some form.

It’s gotten a lot less white.

Many Indians and Asians have moved here.

[Matty]

Sorry, I did not mean to offend with that comment.

I was just trying to be more specific.

I will rephrase: mission viejo has seen an influx of southern asian, middle eastern, and east asian residents, most of whom are educated.

[Matty]

Cnn exit also has Biden approval at 56-41

Pretty mediocre tbh

[Matty]

Exit polls on CNN:

Views on the Republican Party 32% favorable/63% unfavorable

Views of the Democratic Party: 52%/43%

In other words, significant chunks of dems and reps dislike their own party

[Matty]

What percentage of the Black male vote does Larry Elder get? 10% 15? I don't see Black men being excited over a slick white guy like Gavin Newsom....

Do blacks in CA vote any differently than blacks in Dixie?

[Matty]

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1437893465430380544?s=20

The CA GOP sucks so much lmfao.

Yes, but are they worse than even the Florida Democratic Party? 

How can you possibly compare the two?

The dems consistently get 48%+ of vote in Florida

The gop struggles to get 35% in CA

[Matty]

Newsom will be making a statement right when the polls close.

https://twitter.com/Elex_Michaelson/status/1437967394295586821?s=20

Let's hope he takes a well-deserved victory lap.

yea congrats on winning a D+30 state as a democrat