The democrats are going to gain a seat in the senate this november

[Matty]

Georgia, Kansas, and Kentucky will go dem. West Virginia and Montana will go republican. SD will stay democratic.  The dems will hold on to Colorado, Iowa, Arkansas, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Alaska.

The reason I believe this is because the polls are underestimating minority turnout, just like in 2012. Virtually all of the swing states (besides maybe Iowa and NH) have sizable minority populations that are not being polled. For example, the polls are not reaching bush people in Alaska. That is tens of thousands of begich votes. The polls are not reaching hispanics in Colorado. That is tens of thousands of Udall votes. The polls are not reaching blacks in Georgia or Kentucky. THat is tens and tens of thousands of Nunn and Grimes votes.

[Matty]

With one robocall to African American voters, thad cochran was able to swing that primary election by getting thousands to the polls that otherwise wouldn't have showed up. If an old white Mississippi republican can do that with a robocall, I see no reason why democrats can't get these same folks to the polls on  November 4th.

[Matty]

My citation is the 2012 election.