Democratic Presidential Primaries in Southern States

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Did John Wolfe win one or even two congressional districts?
And why didn't he receive any delegates?

Candidate       Obama    Wolfe

Delegates        47           0

Popular vote    94,936    67,711

Percentage      58.37%  41.63%

Blue: Obama
Purple: Wolfe

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He didn't receive delegates because he didn't do the proper filing in which he was supposed to name his delegates, apparently.

Don't you think it was a plot by the party executive?

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I'm inclined to think that, yes. Particularly as it happened to Keith Russell Judd in West Virginia as well.

Okay, but it's quite reasonable to not allocate delegates to an inmate.

Do you think that Wolfe won a district?

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Doesn't look like Wolfe won a district. I don't know the relative votes of the counties, but the fact the counties appear to be fairly evenly mixed throughout the state, combined with Obama's reasonably high percentage margin statewide, makes it unlikely. I think AR-04 was probably closest.

Oooooh, he did...
I've found a site that provides the data for congressional districts:



1st CD:  50.68% for Wolfe
2nd CD: 77.09% for Obama
3rd CD:  78.50% for Obama
4th CD:  50.58% for Obama

It seems like AR-01 was the only congressional district nation-wide that Obama lost against a real person.

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A candidate called "uncommitted" seemed to have campaigned very hard in Appalachia...



1st CD: 55.60% uncommitted
2nd CD: 52.12% for Obama
3rd CD: 81.50% for Obama
4th CD: 55.49% for Obama
5th CD: 60.35% uncommitted
6th CD: 58.78% for Obama

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I wonder how close Obama came to losing WV-03.

Let me do the calculating for you:


           Obama    Judd
WV-01: 61.21%   38.79%
WV-02: 64.80%   35.20%
WV-03: 53.60%   46.40%

Best county for Obama:        Jefferson (77.68%)
Best county for Judd:           Mingo (60.24%)
Narrowest county for Obama: Mercer (50.26%)
Narrowest county for Judd:    Boone (51.58%)

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That's surprising. I would have thought at least one of either the 1st or the 4th would have blacks as a large enough proportion of the Democratic primary electorate to give Obama a clear victory.

On the face of it, those both results may seem strange.
However, if you figure out that the African American strongholds lie only in the Southern halves of either congressional district and that the Southern Arkansas counties are only sparsely peopled, the results become more plausible. Furthermore, there are only six counties which are majority black.

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           Obama    Terry      Rogers
OK-01   71.79%   13.81%    6.91%
OK-02   42.20%   25.43%   18.63%
OK-03   47.63%   22.07%   16.40%
OK-04   53.19%   17.23%   16.68%
OK-05   77.89%     8.33%    7.81%

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That's surprising. I would have thought at least one of either the 1st or the 4th would have blacks as a large enough proportion of the Democratic primary electorate to give Obama a clear victory.

Here's the county map with the different color shapes.

Obama's best county:       Wolfe's best county: Obama's narrowest county: Wolfe's narrowest county:

Pulaski (86.19%) Sevier (75.36%) Woodruff (50.72%) Logan (51.23%)

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Obama:

AL-01: 81.11%
AL-02: 89.22%
AL-03: 88.03%
AL-04: 56.77%
AL-05: 67.84%
AL-06: 95.45%
AL-07: 89.40%

I find it a bit astonishing that Obama performed in the 5th CD better than in the 4th CD.

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Louisiana used the district lines from the last decade to allocate the primary delegates:

district LA-01: LA-02: LA-03: LA-04: LA-05: LA-06: LA-07: State:

Obama 62.30% 94.73% 62.88% 77.67% 76.44% 80.34% 60.41% 76.94%

Wolfe 19.62% 2.46% 17.24% 11.90% 11.48% 9.77% 22.04% 11.66%

Ely 10.76% 1.59% 10.75% 5.94% 6.97% 5.43% 9.44% 6.38%

Richardson 7.32% 1.22% 9.13% 4.50% 5.11% 4.47% 8.11% 5.02%