KY Senate Race 2014: Getting lucky in Kentucky

[Joshgreen]

McConnell tries to link Grimes to the climate change all-nighter.

It's soo funny to see how desperate McConnell is...it's going to be delicious seeing him go down in flames.

[Joshgreen]

Cohn wrote in NYT that McConnell is much less vulnerable than he appears. He wrote a similar article last year in TNR, IIRC.

Ask Nate Silver how his "state fundamentals" worked out for him in predicting Rick Berg's triumph in ND.

Any senator with an approval rating in the mid-30s is in a world of trouble...

[Joshgreen]

Berg was a poor candidate. McConnell is not, and Bevin supporters - who make up a significant chunk of McConnell's disapproval - will not vote for Grimes in November. That said, I think we'll have to disagree here.

Fair enough...

Berg was maybe a poor candidate, but he wasn't hated, like Mcconnell is.

However, Mcconnell is definitely what we can say a political killer, and I believe like you ALG will be nuked.

I disagree. The more he goes negative, the more his own negatives go. ALG has real Teflon potential IMHO. She's no Dan Mongiardo.

[Joshgreen]

Berg was maybe a poor candidate, but he wasn't hated, like Mcconnell is.

However, Mcconnell is definitely what we can say a political killer, and I believe like you ALG will be nuked.

I disagree. The more he goes negative, the more his own negatives go. ALG has real Teflon potential IMHO. She's no Dan Mongiardo.

McConnell's approval sits at 27% and there's no way he can do much worse than that. A lot of Republicans who are angered with McConnell and who will vote for Bevin will just end up biting their tongue as usual and vote for McConnell over Grimes. The ceiling for Grimes is the mid-40s and I mean she will really have to convince those undecided moderate voters that McConnell isn't in line with the values of Kentucky anymore and need new officials. Defeating a Senate Minority Leader is by no means easy and Thune, a Republican, barely did it against Daschle in a Republican friendly state like South Dakota. The last time a Republican incumbent Senator lost their seat to a Democrat in a state that went to the Republican two years prior in the Presidential was Faircloth falling to Edwards in 1998, so unless Bevin pulls an upset on McConnell, I don't see Grimes winning this thing.

In less serious news, here's a very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very creepy ad by Team Mitch McConnell's official YT page. I think this gives McConnell's Harlem Shake and "What Rhymes with ALG?" ads a run for their money on worst and creepiest ads so far.   To give him credit though, his "Care" ad wasn't all that bad, actually.

Getting from 30% approval to 50 percent requires a ton of work and McConnell hasn't really shown the potential to do so. His approvals have never been this bad (contrary to popular belief) and Daschle's approvals in SD weren't even that bad. Also, the midterm electorate in KY is more Dem friendly, as evidenced by polling.

[Joshgreen]

Is McConnell trying to win the record for most terrible ads or something?

I got through the first 1:20 and thought, "There's another minute of this?!" and closed out. This is actually terrible and won't even air given it's length. It's not as if you could even cut it down to make it shorter. Awful, just awful.