If Romney runs, will the Nevada caucuses be uncontested? (user search)
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  If Romney runs, will the Nevada caucuses be uncontested? (search mode)
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Author Topic: If Romney runs, will the Nevada caucuses be uncontested?  (Read 677 times)
BaconBacon96
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Posts: 2,678
Ireland, Republic of


« on: January 18, 2015, 01:13:32 AM »

If the 2016 primary calendar pans out like I'm expecting, Nevada will likely go third, just after Iowa and New Hampshire.  So it would seem like there's a good chance that it would be a heavily contested state, with a lot of candidate attention.

Except for one problem.  If Romney runs, then we'll presumably get a repeat of 2008 and 2012, where Mormons make up ~25% of the GOP caucus turnout and go ~90% for Romney.  With enough support from non-Mormons as well, Romney then wins ~50% of the total vote, with second place way back around ~20-25% or so.  This could easily happen even if Romney 2016 isn't as strong as Romney 2012 or even Romney 2008.

Given that, will the other candidates even bother to contest the state?  They might as well just skip it and go straight to South Carolina, hoping that Romney winning unopposed means that the media will discount the meaning of his win.


Maybe they'll draft Sandoval as "favorite son" candidate, wounding Romney, without anyone having to campaign there.
That is so 1960's.
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