Poland election - October 25 2015

[Donnie]

Latest poll (IBRIS) ahead of parl. election (Oct. 25-th). 460 seats

PIS             40.4   %  256 seats
PO              19     %  117 seats
United Left   9.5   %  45 seats
Nowoczesna (new liberal party in Poland) 6.5%  16 seats
PSL             5.4   %  16 seats
------------------5%-----------------------------
Kukiz party   4.7  %
KORWIN       2.2  %
Undecided 7%

[Donnie]

Latest TNS OBOP 4-9 Sept. 984 sample.

PIS             48%
PO              29%
Kukiz            9%

All others below the 5% thereshold.

Despite the TNS OBOP polls were the most accurate in reg. to Polish elections
in recent years, the PIS numbers look a little too high for me.
Or is this the impact of refugees mess in Europe?

[Donnie]

Today is the last day when parties can collect and send/give those lists with signatures to the electoral commissions. So today we will be sure which parties will take part in the elections in whole country and which only locally.

How many parties (coalitions of parties) in total will participate?

[Donnie]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CPwKRlyWcAAiXTz.png:large

Recap of all Polish parl. polls in September (in red average rounded to 100%)

[Donnie]

With 15 days left in Poland, here's the average of 5 major polls
published over the last 3 days:

PIS                   39,7 %
PO                    25,4 %
United Left       9,8%
Nowoczesna     7,7%
Kukiz'15          7,1%
PSL                   5,7%
--------5% thereshold---------
Korwin             3,6%
others              1,0%

source: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CQ34x4HWEAA6py1.png:large

[Donnie]

With 9 days left in Poland, here's the average of 6 major polls
published over the last 3 days:

PIS                   38,7 %
PO                    25,9 %
United Left         9,6 %
Kukiz 15             6,9%
Nowoczesna       6,3%
PSL                     5,7%
Korwin                5,3%
--------5% thereshold---------
others                 1,6%
            
 source: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CRbwI5ZWcAE0Lrl.png:large

[Donnie]

With 3 days left in Poland, here's the average of 5 major polls
published today CET:

PIS                  38,1 %
PO                    24,7 %
Kukiz 15             8,6%
United Left         8,6 %
Nowoczesna       7,0%
PSL                     5,5%
----5% thereshold---------
Korwin                4,8%
others                 2,7%

source: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CR8LR9_UwAAarRx.png:large

My (as always accurate) prediction, will be published tomorrow at 4 P.M ET. Stay tuned.
  

[Donnie]

final prediction:

PIS                   40%
PO                     23%
Kukiz 15           10%
ZL                 7.0-8.4% - OUT (71% probability-8% thereshold)
PSL                     7%
-----------------5 % thereshold-----------------
Nowoczesna   4.2-5.6% - OUT (61% probability)
Korwin               4%
Razem               2%
others               1%

turnout: 47%

[Donnie]

turnout at noon: 16.47% 

It's going to be 52-53% in the end.

[Donnie]

According to unofficial information, PSL will be out with 4.8% and KORWIN will sneak in with
5.1%. United Left is  for 99% out. With these results, Poland will become the most right wing
country in Europe, with no left party in 460 seat parlament

[Donnie]

sorry kataak, I don;t really understand what the numbers on those polls mean?

Pretty sure its two polls one from nov and one from now, showing .Nowoczesna surging.

With nearly 4 yrs left till next POL elections it's really meaningless !