Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal (user search)
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Author Topic: Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal  (Read 133046 times)
henster
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,022
« on: October 21, 2018, 09:40:27 PM »
Hopefully in person early voting #'s in FL will be just as good tomorrow.
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henster
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,022
« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2018, 12:21:18 AM »
I wish Amy McGrath or MJ Hegar had decided to move to NV after 2016, and they could've pulled it off because most of NV voters are pretty new anyways.
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henster
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,022
« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2018, 02:14:49 PM »
Any thoughts on this out of OH?

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https://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2018/10/early_voting_sharply_increases.html
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henster
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,022
« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2018, 03:32:08 PM »
The NBC article has Republicans up 52-43 in GA where there is no party registration... And 53-43 in TX and EV just started TODAY there. What is TargetSmart and why is the media citing them?
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henster
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,022
« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2018, 10:13:58 PM »
Anybody know what's up with Cuyahoga I read the EV is not even reaching '14 levels there.
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henster
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,022
« Reply #5 on: October 23, 2018, 05:27:32 PM »
Mentally preparing for a disappointing election night now, this looks more like a neutral midterm than anything else. 
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henster
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,022
« Reply #6 on: October 26, 2018, 12:03:32 AM »
Quote from: Lou Barletta's Teeth on October 25, 2018, 11:09:21 PM
If you all want a good laugh, look up Larry Schweikart on twitter, he’s a self-described analyst who believe there’s a 10% chance Obama goes to jail for reasons only he and the Republicans can conjure up. He’s trying to make the case that the Democrats are going to get massacred in Nevada because their early voting is short of their 2016 numbers, despite the fact 2016 was a presidential year and that comparing presidential elections to midterms is one of the dumbest things you could do. What’s even funnier is that the MAGAts are taking him 100% seriously and keep citing him in reply’s to Nate Cohn and GCM. Lmao.






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henster
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,022
« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2018, 01:02:27 AM »
The hype built up around Beto is unfortunate given the likely outcome. Wish people were more grounded instead of getting so emotionally involved just makes the end result even harder on people.
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henster
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,022
« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2018, 05:23:45 PM »
Don't know why they bother trying to interpret EV in states where the rules are strict.
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henster
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,022
« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2018, 08:51:00 PM »
I'm not sure about their modeling for states with no party registration.
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henster
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,022
« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2018, 09:05:59 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on November 05, 2018, 08:52:17 PM
Quote from: 2016 on November 05, 2018, 08:40:10 PM
Cruz, you missed out one very important Race off the TargetSmart Early Vote Data and that's Indiana.

It's 56-35 GOP in the Early Vote. Republicans should feel very confident about that one. Actually HoweyPolitics which is well regarded in the Hoosier State where former Rep. Mark Souder is one of the Analysts predicting a narrow Victory for Braun AND if that happens it will effectivly end the Democrats Chances of retaking the Senate. Souder predicted that Donnelly will get Crossover & Indie Support but it won't be enough to topple Braun.


In a state like Indiana, Donnelly is going to get crossover support. So going by partisan EV is not most accurate. Also, there's only 9% indies in the EV? That seems low.

I think it goes by voting in past primaries if no party registration which is dubious.
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henster
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,022
« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2018, 10:48:41 PM »
Target Smart is VoteCastr 2.0. Only thing I trust from them is data from states with party registration.
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