Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[henster]

Is Stacey being single an issue for her? I know some black voters can be pretty traditional.

[henster]

The latest RGA ad is another hit on her taxes, I wonder what the story is about her loaning her campaign $50K. It really undercuts her a bit on the issue and weird it's almost the exact amount she owes to the IRS.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=72FEMine86M&feature=youtu.be

[henster]

Do you guys think Isakson will resign if Abrams wins? If so, who do you think Deal appoints to replace him? He’s so sick that I really don’t think he’ll be able to serve out the entirety of his term.

Is he really that ill?

He has Parkinson’s and was diagnosed 3.5 years or so ago. The lifespan after diagnosis is 5-10 years and once it progresses you really start to suffer. I think he’s doing better at the current moment than he has been but I could see both he and Deal not wanting to run the risk of him not being able to serve for another four years and have Abrams appoint someone

A Gov. Abrams could appoint Teresa Tomlinson or maybe Judge Glenda Hatchett. If she wants to pick a white male to appeal to the suburbs and rural areas, maybe Jim Marshall.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glenda_Hatchett

Tomlinson has already more or less confirmed she’s running for Perdue’s seat that’s up in 2020 so idt it would be her

I would think GA Dems would really want Yates to run in 2020.

[henster]

45 is about where nearly every Dem in GA has ended up on ED in the past decade.

[henster]

She is not investing her money in yard signs. She is investing in field. People have been calling voters and knocking doors for months. Things will be ramping up soon. The only thing Kemp yard signs show is that he has money to spend on them.

Cagle had a lot of signs leading up to the run off too. So there's that.

ETA: Gente 4 Abrams have launched their General Election operation. They will be pushing out the vote in the Latinx communities in DeKalb, Gwinnett, Cobb, Fulton, and Hall counties. Excited to see all these grassroots organizations investing in communities both sides have written off and getting them to the polls themselves.

I think people underestimate how important yard signs can be. Sometimes undecideds will vote for the candidate with the most signs in their neighborhood because they feel that is who everything else is comfortable with.

[henster]

This ad on behalf of Stacey Abrams is really bad, the fake southern accent is so obvious.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DcVKS0UWcDU

[henster]

Kemp up 48-46.

https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/landmark-poll-shows-tight-race-for-georgia-gov-divide-over-kavanaugh/i01BKbcxcBqSlV5ENZ2gRP/

[henster]

Surprised to see Abrams outraised, I guess the fundraising caps are pretty lax in GA.

[henster]

What is the likelihood Abrams does worse than Hillary with whites?

[henster]

If she loses I think there's going to be endless discussion about how she ran too far to the left. She is really going all out on the base first strategy and if it pays off, hers will be a model all over but GA Dems will have to do a lot of soul searching if it doesn't.

[henster]

The white vote is still hard to crack for Dems in the deep south.

[henster]

Honestly Sally Yates > Stacey Abrams in 2020. Just need to a little better in rurals and hold Abrams support in suburbs and that should do it and I think Yates is better suited to do that.

[henster]

There are different sets of exit polls out there and the other one is showing some differences. The one from FOX shows Abrams doing a bit better with white women 28-70 instead of 25-75 and winning women overall 56-43 instead of 51-49 while doing worse with men 40-58 instead of 46-52. Racial breakdown in FOX exit poll is also a bit different at 63-37 vs. 60-40 in CNN one. I have no idea why there's a disparity in the exit polls but it's interesting.

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=GA&type=G

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/georgia

[henster]

Honestly even if she makes it to the recount she'll probably lose by a bigger margin. I don't see the endgame, I know it's hard to concede to someone like Kemp who actively committed voter suppression but if there's no path, there's no path.

[henster]

I can't think of this as nothing more than a money grab, Kamala Harris was already trying to grift off of this. Half of what was she raising for Stacey was going to herself, I'm sure the state party is getting all they can from gullible donors for recount/runoff funds they'll never need. 

[henster]

Unfortunately I think Stacey damaged herself with the ongoing fight and wouldn't be a good candidate against Perdue. I hope Sally Yates can be convinced to run because she is the exact type of candidate needed to win.

[henster]

I still think her dragged out concession irreparably hurt her image in the state. I would like to see some polling to back this up but while it was a good cause I can't imagine it reflected well on her with most voters.

[henster]

Anybody else put off by Abram's saying she really won the Gov race? I get not conceding but just declaring flippantly that you won the race is very Trumpian to me.