Congressional Primary Results Megathread: AR, GA, KY & TX (Runoff) - May 22

[henster]

I don't think Beto ran any ads basically relied on media to boost name ID, some people are tuned out. Probably some Latinos voting for a name.

[henster]

Based on what I'm seeing right now TX is Safe R for Senate.

[henster]

I just think Beto's performance is really underwhelming considering all the media coverage he's got, he should at least crack 70+. And he represents a heavily Latino district he should be doing better in those areas.

[henster]

Beto apparently visited all 254 counties had huge townhalls plenty of local media coverage.

[henster]

Will King County cast any votes for Dems? It was the most Trump county in the country?

[henster]

My theories on why Beto is underperforming. Low name ID and low info voters, Latinos voting for a Hispanic name.

[henster]

I will wait for results from Beto's CD if he underperforms there then he has a serious problem with Latinos in general.

[henster]

Beto only at 58% in Harris Co. EV.

http://electiondata.harrisvotes.com/Cumulative/Dem/cumulative.htm

[henster]

Wasserman seemed pretty concerned about Beto's performance so its more than concern trolling.

[henster]

Polls closed more than an hour ago and still only 3% reporting???

[henster]

Apparently the Zodiac Killer was very active in Sherman County, and McCulloch and Comanche were some of JFK's best counties.

[henster]

I know Ortiz Jones if filipino but has a Hispanic sounding name and that seems to carry a lot of weight for candidates in Latino heavy districts.

[henster]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I don't think the path to 218 runs through TX at all, I wouldn't be surprised if Dems took the House even if they net 0 seats out of TX. Dems need to go all out on CA, NY, PA.

[henster]

I mean come on VA has virtually no early voting and they can finish counting in under 3 hours.

[henster]

Panic sweeping through Democratic circles --->

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/971226158112047107

TX was always fools gold, and this is the last time I'm paying attention to these early voting reports. How many times have people been burned by these EV anecdotals?

[henster]

Holy sh*t.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/971229234499813376

Cruz will win by 15.

[henster]

Gina Ortiz Jones: 39.6
Judy Canales: 18.4
Rick Trevino: 17.3
Jay Hulings: 16

Think Hulings just had the misfortune of having the whitest sounding name.

[henster]

I predict TX-23 will be the only CD Dems flip.

[henster]

As long as TX whites vote 70+ for GOP then it will not be competitive for the near future. VA/CO flipped mainly because whites, every TX blue scenario relies on Latinos and misses the white voters in the equation.

[henster]

1 Dem turned out for Beto O'Rourke in King County which was Trump's best county in the country he won it 94-3 which is 149 votes to Hillary's 5. It looks like 2 people voted in the GOV primary as well.

[henster]

Anyone have any theories on why Cruz is doing so well and O'Rourke doing so badly in Harris County (Houston)? Cruz has almost 100k votes there (and Rs total near 110k) while O'Rourke only has around 65k, and Democrats in general only have around 110-115k. That seems like a pretty bad result for the largest metro area in the state, and an area Hillary beat Trump in by 15 points (which, admittedly, makes it more competitive than most major metro areas, but still).

I mean, obviously results like that will happen when you go from looking at a 9 point loss (2016 general) to a 22 point loss (total R primary votes compared to total D primary votes, which no is not a great indicator but it means about as much as it did in Virginia). You also don't see collapses in San Antonio or Dallas, and in fact see a tremendous performance for O'Rourke in Austin (he has almost four times as many votes as Cruz there), so it's odd that Houston isn't really turning out for Democrats with nearly the same gusto.

Another important thing to note is that Cruz is only 40k votes behind Abbott. I doubt that Cruz loses on a night where Abbott wins by double digits based on this (and frankly I think Dems will be very lucky to get within 20 of Abbott in November).

Can't wait for people to overanalyze these as the first 'real' results for literally months.

Harris is Cruz's home county and base, also the county has a high black population and it could be poor turnout affecting the Dem side.

[henster]

It's probably silly, but I can't help but think that Alex Triantaphyllis did as poorly as he did because his name reminded people of syphilis.

I read that candidates with difficult last names usually lose, I wonder if he could've shortened his name on the ballot to something like Alex Trian.

[henster]

Anyone want to speculate the decent GOP turnout is a result of the gun control talk? Maybe Dems have overplayed their hands on this again.

[henster]

I've been repeatedly saying Cruz by 5-7 for months, and I stand by that. A result around 53-46 in November is what I'm expecting.

46 would be quite a feat, Dem ceiling seems to be 44.

[henster]

There were way more ads for R primaries than Ds in Ohio. Don't make too much out of turnout disparities, in open primary states indies will usually flock to the most competitive.