Trump approval ratings thread 1.3

[henster]

I remember Rass had one of Obama's best showings after 2012 because they were modeling after that electorate.

[henster]

We get a Monmouth poll tomorrow so plenty more bedwetting to be had.

[henster]

We have a new daily online pollster from DailyKos/Civiqs including Trump JA which they have at 42/54 and GCB.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/3/12/1748087/-Announcing-Civiqs-the-coolest-thing-I-ve-helped-build-since-Daily-Kos

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?annotations=true&net=false&uncertainty=true

[henster]

Rasmussen 4/2

Approve - 50
Disapprove - 49

Rasmussen is so damn bouncy. A few days ago it was really low, now it’s high. As fun as daily trackers are for us junkies I don’t think they tell us much

Sometimes I think they just fudge the numbers so Trump can tweet them out.

But Reuters/Ipsos shows similar improvement for Trump, going from 37-58 to 41-55. But that poll is also bouncy. SurveyMonkey was 44-55 which wasn't much of a change from before. We'll have gallup today.

I’m not conspiratorial enough to think Razzy intentionally fudges their numbers. I do think their model is a bit screwy in how it’s weighted, though.

I try not to be, but when they're directly tweeting their tracking poll at the president, I get a little suspicious.

Eeesh that’s not a good look

They could be going full Research 2000, you never know. I hope a reporter takes a deep dive into this, they also have some sketchy ads on their site as well.

[henster]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, April 19-25, 9688 adults including 8455 RV

Among adults:

Approve 45 (+1)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Strongly approve 25 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 41 (nc)

Among RV:

Approve 47 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (-1)

Strongly approve 28 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+1)

Wow, those are some Rasmussen numbers at RV. Suggest that Rasmussen might not be such a big outlier after all.

Damn it Limo.

FWIW, SurveyMonkey has an even lower 538 rating than Rasmussen (C- vs C+).

Wait actually? Never mind, I don't think they're credible. I'm just surprised that Axios and NBC contracts them out so heavily.

The RV sample is actually R+4 and R+2 among all adults, when was the last time Rs had a party ID advantage over Ds in polls, I don't even think that was the case in 2010/14.

[henster]

RCP is very selective in which polls they put in their database, they largely do RV polls only, they chose the PEW 42/54 RV result vs the 39/54 adults one. Same with Monmouth it shows 45/48 but the pollster talks about the 41/50 number. Did they make such a distinction with Obama?

[henster]

POLITICO reports that Trump's rise in recent days has not just come from North Korea but also because of Kanye West's comments in favour of Trump and questioning the "slavish mindset" of Blacks ...

Support for Trump among Black men doubled after Kanye's comments and among Blacks in total it's also up significantly in the Reuters poll:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/04/trump-kanye-african-american-poll-numbers-569166

https://www.rollingstone.com/music/news/donald-trump-thanks-kanye-west-for-boost-in-approval-rating-w519854

That's good, it means it's totally meaningless for midterm election results.

The whole Kanye thing is infuriating and asnine for multiple reasons, but let's think this through for a moment. Is Kanye tweeting nice things about Trump really going to motivate young black men to vote for Todd Rokita, Josh Hawley, or Rick Scott? Would the type of person who would be persuaded by Kanye be the type who votes in a Midterm? Because at the end of the day, those are the questions that really matter, and I'm very, very skeptical that the answer is yes.

It’s particularly annoying considering Trumo’s awful views on the drug war and ardent support of private prisons. Kanye’s support also overshadowed the news of Carson raising rents for poor people, likely many PoC hit hardest. I don’t even think he’s driven by policy but attention which makes it even more frustrating.

[henster]

Trump's black support in the Reuters tracking poll just collapsed from 22% to 13% in a week. What does this mean!??! I expect a dozen headlines to be written over this.

[henster]

You guys would rather bad things to happen to America if it meant his numbers would drop

Drumpf is a bad thing happening to America

Come on you know damn well most of conservatives were actively rooting for Obama's failure and griped at every good jobs report. The unemployment rate was fake according to most Republicans until 1/20/17.

[henster]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, May 10-16, 20556 including 17617 RV

Among all adults:

Approve 45 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (-2)

Strongly approve 26 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-3)

Among RV:

Approve 46 (+1)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Strongly approve 29 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 41 (-2)

The party ID always looks off in the SurveyMonkey polls it shows D+2 among all adults and even with RV. A lot of polls lately have been showing higher number of people identifying Rs than before.

[henster]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, May 10-16, 20556 including 17617 RV

Among all adults:

Approve 45 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (-2)

Strongly approve 26 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-3)

Among RV:

Approve 46 (+1)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Strongly approve 29 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 41 (-2)

The party ID always looks off in the SurveyMonkey polls it shows D+2 among all adults and even with RV. A lot of polls lately have been showing higher number of people identifying Rs than before.

That is the scenario where the GOP holds Congress- where they become the bigger party.

We know that's not going to happen.

If Ds didn't lose their party ID advantage under Obama why would they lose it under Trump?

[henster]

Of course their LV screen could be really tight.

[henster]

Just a couple things to throw some cold water on the Trump obituaries in this thread lately...

—Trump’s RCP average (44.6%) is the highest it has been since April 2017.

—Obama’s RCP averages in the summer of 2010 fluctuated between 43-47%.

Both of these facts are provably true with hard data, but I’ll just sit back and wait to be called a delusional bullshi++er for asserting them.

RCP is pretty selective in which type of polls they input, 538 has him at 42%.

[henster]

I hate when pollsters group all of these states together either do a national poll or do individual ones. These states are so different for all we know NM and TN could be throwing off the sample because of how far they lean.