Kaine vs. Kasich

[henster]

Kasich would trounce Kaine.

In short, what Maxy said.

Now, Kaine could lead in the summer, similar to how Dukakis did in 1988, but Kasich would ultimately improve his performance as election day neared. I actually feel it is more likely that Kasich could manage to hold a lead for most of 2016. I think the debates would be a mixed bag, since neither Kasich nor Kaine seem particularly electrifying.

This is what I see as being a likely outcome:

I don't see how Kaine loses PA, MN, MI, IA or WI he'd arguably do better among whites than Obama in those states. I think your underestimating Kaine's abilities as a candidate.

[henster]

This would be close.

I think Kaine is a slightly superior politician. He has won statewide office three times, winning the bigger races by better margins than Kasich in Ohio in 2010. Republicans need to win Ohio, while Democrats can afford to lose Virginia.

Kaine's weakness is that Democrats have held the White House for the last two terms. As a Senator/ former DNC chair, he can't exactly run as an outsider.

I'd give Kasich the edge due to the tendency of parties to do worse in the third term.

Kasich/ Martinez- 282 Electoral Votes
Kaine/ Klobuchar- 256 Electoral Votes

Explain to me how does Kaine lose Pennsylvania I'd argue he's a much better fit for PA than Obama ever was I'd think he improves among whites there and Eastern PA.

[henster]

This would be close.

I think Kaine is a slightly superior politician. He has won statewide office three times, winning the bigger races by better margins than Kasich in Ohio in 2010. Republicans need to win Ohio, while Democrats can afford to lose Virginia.

Kaine's weakness is that Democrats have held the White House for the last two terms. As a Senator/ former DNC chair, he can't exactly run as an outsider.

I'd give Kasich the edge due to the tendency of parties to do worse in the third term.

Kasich/ Martinez- 282 Electoral Votes
Kaine/ Klobuchar- 256 Electoral Votes

Explain to me how does Kaine lose Pennsylvania I'd argue he's a much better fit for PA than Obama ever was I'd think he improves among whites there and Eastern PA.

Kaine's in a worse position than Obama was. He's  a candidate who lacks the advantage of incumbency running to get his party another term in the White House.

I'd also imagine decreased African American turnout without Obama on the ballot. In 2012, African Americans were 13% of the voters (slightly higher than their share of the population) and 93% went for Obama.

Kasich would also have an advantage in Pennsylvania coming from a neighboring state. Even if Kaine's a better fit for PA than Obama, Kasich's a better fit for the state than Romney, McCain or George W Bush.

You could say the exact same thing about Clinton yet most people don't have her losing PA. And Kaine could just improve his numbers among whites to make up for lower black turnout.

[henster]

This would be close.

I think Kaine is a slightly superior politician. He has won statewide office three times, winning the bigger races by better margins than Kasich in Ohio in 2010. Republicans need to win Ohio, while Democrats can afford to lose Virginia.

Kaine's weakness is that Democrats have held the White House for the last two terms. As a Senator/ former DNC chair, he can't exactly run as an outsider.

I'd give Kasich the edge due to the tendency of parties to do worse in the third term.

Kasich/ Martinez- 282 Electoral Votes
Kaine/ Klobuchar- 256 Electoral Votes

Explain to me how does Kaine lose Pennsylvania I'd argue he's a much better fit for PA than Obama ever was I'd think he improves among whites there and Eastern PA.

Kaine's in a worse position than Obama was. He's  a candidate who lacks the advantage of incumbency running to get his party another term in the White House.

I'd also imagine decreased African American turnout without Obama on the ballot. In 2012, African Americans were 13% of the voters (slightly higher than their share of the population) and 93% went for Obama.

Kasich would also have an advantage in Pennsylvania coming from a neighboring state. Even if Kaine's a better fit for PA than Obama, Kasich's a better fit for the state than Romney, McCain or George W Bush.

You could say the exact same thing about Clinton yet most people don't have her losing PA. And Kaine could just improve his numbers among whites to make up for lower black turnout.

The point's been made that due to her name recognition, Hillary Clinton is essentially an incumbent.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-is-polling-like-an-incumbent-and-that-could-help-her-in-2016/

Kaine doesn't have the same advantage. He would essentially be a generic Democrat.

As for the suggestion that he could just improve his numbers among whites, I'm sure he wants to do that, but whether he can pull it off is a different story. Politicians can't just improve their numbers among large chunks of the electorate.

Kaine did run about two percent better than Obama in Virginia. However, he was running against an inferior political talent in George Allen and he had recently served as Governor.

It's not like Kasich has stellar name recognition he'd basically be a generic R or worse since he's unlikely to be unscathed form a brutal primary.

[henster]

Doesn't Kaine waffle on abortion? He has some vaguely, not-party line viewpoint on it.

He's basically on the same page as Joe Biden personally disagrees with abortion but is pro-choice.