Polls of important counties (user search)
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  Polls of important counties (search mode)
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Author Topic: Polls of important counties  (Read 211 times)
mb123
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Posts: 15


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -0.87

« on: September 18, 2016, 12:53:06 PM »
« edited: September 18, 2016, 01:28:37 PM by mb123 »

    I am trying to put together an electoral college map. I was trying to place who was going to win ohio and I was looking at 538's projection then over at the atlas map for 2012 general election. It seems like ohio was carried for Obama by like 3 counties. Considering how many people live in Cuyahoga county [645k people] and since ohio is such a bell-weather for if a republican will be in the white house why arent there polls of this place? It would be nice to find some details of how different demographics are feeling this year vs 2012 in some of these particular counties that have huge amounts of the votes in important battle ground states right?
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mb123
Rookie
**
Posts: 15


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -0.87

« Reply #1 on: September 18, 2016, 01:37:43 PM »

Well as far as sample size all the polls I see on RCP/538 have sample sizes of like 900-1600 likely/registered voters so I dont see how you couldnt pull together the same sample size for a county and have it be more accurate (for that county's results) than for the a proportionately smaller sample of a larger body.

   I figured like a local news organization or school would want to do some for major counties (cuyahoga and like 2 other counties next to it have 10% of the votes in the state and I was trying to see if the partisan strength was the same there or not) in the state. There are a lot of things that could influence the outcomes in a state and rather than just take RCP avg + 538 avg and click a state into a column I was trying to look at last presidential election result [candidate and strength], current senate polls, whether bernie or hillary won the primary etc. In ohio I saw that a handful of counties helped put Obama at +3% but if Hillary doesnt perform as well as Obama with minority voters or just doesnt motivate democrats like Obama did in those counties the state could go differently. I guess I just wanted to wonk too much Sad  Thanks for the link to the tampa bay polls.

 
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