South African General Election, 2019

[Kosmos]

The election is scheduled for 2019 (no specific date set yet), but I haven't been able to find an existing thread for it, so here we go!

A new poll released yesterday shows the ANC's support has spiked from the last poll taken in May 2017, while the main opposition, the Democratic Alliance's support has slumped to a low-

ANC: 60% (+13)
DA: 13% (-8)
EFF: 7% (+2)

It is worth noting that the poll shows a drop in support for both the DA and the ANC since the 2014 election.

https://www.ipsos.com/en-za/ipsos-poll-anc-support-60

EDIT: Digging through the poll, the DA and the ANC are neck and neck in the Western Cape, where the DA won 59% of the vote in 2014. Abysmal news for them.

The devil is, as they say, in the details.

A breakdown of the total WC respondents gives us this result:

DA 28%
ANC 26%
Refused 17%
Will not vote 9%
None of the current parties 5%
Nor registered 5%
Don't know 5%
EFF 3%

So what has likely happened here is that many people who would presumably stated their support for the DA in the past, have now moved to the fence. This is likely caused by the party's handling of the drought, plus the De Lille drama in Cape Town.

The silver lining for them is perhaps that disappointed voters do not seem to have transfered their to vote to the ANC. The efforts of captonians to preserve water has prevented "day zero" (for now) while winter rains are filling the dams again. The conflict with De Lille is scheduled to be resolved with a public disciplinary hearing in August. That's the idea, at least.

The DA can only hope that if they do sort this stuff out, enough of their old voters will forgive them. But it is definately not an ideal situation a year before an election.

[Kosmos]

Just a poster who has a few questions about South Africa's elections.

1) Does Cyril's victory strengthen the ANC's prospects? Does it kill DA and EFF's chances?

2) Do you think Maimane could help broaden and build up DA even if he doesn't win?

3) Was EFF's "win" back in the last election season a fluke? Will they end up like COPE which collapsed (and why did COPE collapse while EFF rose)?

4) How is South Africa doing?

Have a good week.

1. If you asked me a few months ago, I would say he seriously strenghtened the ANC's chances. Now it seems like it was a honeymoon period, or as people say "Ramaphoria is fading". The cost of living is constantly going up and the economy is not doing well at all. Don't get me wrong: I'd still say ANC's chances are better with him than with Zuma (except in KZN), but if things don't improve soon the election is not going to be a cake walk for him.

2. Maimane has a big problem, and that is that he has this incredibly delicate balancing act to do. Every time he tries to say something with the hope of getting more black votes, he risks pissing some whites off. An example of that would be his remarks on Freedom Day about "white privilage". Lord did I see many angry comments over that one. Add to that the DA's problems in the Western Cape with the drought and the De Lille situation, and my bet right now is on DA doing worse in 2019 than they did in 2014.

3. EFF will in all likelyhood not end up like COPE. Because they have a distinct ideological identity and they are filling a void on the political spectrum. There is also nothing like the Lekota vs Shilowa feud; instead Malema is the leader and few would question that. However, EFF is not really growing either. They seem stuck around 6-8%. Maybe that's as big as that kind of party will ever get?

4. Not all that well, in my view. Unemployment, already alarmingly high, has grown this year. Racial tensions seem to be getting worse too, at least judging from social media. The fact that the ANC has started talking about amending the constitution to expropriate land without compensation also does not help matters.

[Kosmos]

Somewhat OT:

1) I understand which areas tended to vote PFP/DP (urban, Anglo, affluent liberals/progressives). Which areas/demographics switched to KP vs stuck with the Nats?

2) Are there any good maps of Apartheid era election results? The only stuff I can find is of the referendum.

I stumbled across this map of the 1981 election once (and I'm pretty sure Hash made it, so hopefully he can come in and take some well deserved credit because there seems to be very little out there in the way of apartheid era constituency results).

Anyway, the patterns seems obvious - PFP picking up seats in the rich/anglo atlantic seabord and southern suburbs of Cape Town and Jo'burg (notable concentration around Sandton) and also picking up seats in the Anglo heartland of Natal (but not Umhlanga, which is the uber rich suburb north of Durban) and getting one in Port Elizabeth (whose white population is predominently anglophone). The win in Grahamstown is undoubtedly due to Rhodes University.

(Also funny to see the New Republic Party - heir of the United Party which had collapsed into being an exclusively english speaking party - only winning seats in Natal).

I couldn't find much about 1987 though, but by the looks of things, the Conservative Party only won seats in the Transvaal (Afrikanerdom, but so was the Orange Free State). They also, surprisingly, didn't only win in rural areas - but also in the Rand, in seats like Roodeport and Randfontein which are heavily Afrikaner, but urban/suburban in nature and in the modern province of Gauteng. By the looks of it, most CP wins were incumbent MPs who had defected from the Nats, which is probably the "key" as far as which areas voted for the party.

That is a great map. Would love to see something similar for other elections, but I of course realize that such a map takes a lot of effort to make.

The leader of the KP, Andries Treurnicht, was the Transvaal leader of the NP prior to his defection. So I think that is another explanation why the party performed the best there. If I am not mistaken, it did however pick up seats in the Orange Free State in the 1989 election, and performed impressively in some parts of what is today the Northern Cape.

[Kosmos]

ACDP may also have some jewish support

That is a great map. Would love to see something similar for other elections, but I of course realize that such a map takes a lot of effort to make.

The leader of the KP, Andries Treurnicht, was the Transvaal leader of the NP prior to his defection. So I think that is another explanation why the party performed the best there. If I am not mistaken, it did however pick up seats in the Orange Free State in the 1989 election, and performed impressively in some parts of what is today the Northern Cape.

Have you ever seen detailed results for other elections? Finding data is pretty tricky, the best I have come across are old Mail and Guardian articles reporting the results.

By the looks of it, 1989 results seem similar to 81 and 87 with CP picking up/going close in a lot of industrial and mining or agricultural seats in the areas you mentioned (eg losing in the industrial/mining town of Vereeniging by just 5 votes); and also progressing in Afrikaner heavy urban or suburban areas around Pretoria and in the West Rand. So essentially a rural and working class Afrikaner vote.

The DP seemed to pick up a lot in the cities - in particular the anglophone heavy East Rand/East Jo'burg (which isn't typically quite as rich as the northern suburbs), and around Durban - as well as in the Cape Winelands and outer Cape Town (which is Afrikaner, but not so much "Boer"), and in smaller English speaking towns like East London and Pietermaritzburg.

Unfortunately that is the only map I have come across. Would love to find more.

I share your view of the Conservative Party as essentially a rural and working class Afrikaner party. The urban seats they picked up were in the poorer income segments.

The DP appears to have taken back every seat the PFP lost in 87, plus some seats from the by then defunct New Republic Party. Perhaps the most interesting pick-up was North Rand, which was an NP-seat in 1981 and predominantly Afrikaner. I am guessing it was an upper middle class or wealthier constituency.

[Kosmos]

Patricia de Lille was undoubtedly a popular politician. But that was like 20 years ago. I don't think this GOOD will amount to all that much. But I could be wrong.

DA is also doing their best to make her look bad. New Mayor Dan Plato has already started the process of declaring Boo Kaap a herritage site, and he and Premier Zille unveiled the new social housing project in Salt River. True or not, but they are clearly hoping that voters will think De Lille was blocking those developments.

[Kosmos]

Proposals of privatising Eskom and SAA should be seen in the light of how much of a mess these entities have become. They are a huge drain on the fiscus, with endless problems despite many bailouts.

As an aside, the right wing Freedom Front Plus held their manifesto launch the other day. Quite a good number of coloured members these days, it seems. I guess the common language (afrikaans) has made it easier for this once entirely white party to expand into new voting segments.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVbsI8zPX8I

[Kosmos]

Now about 1% reporting. So far, it's ANC 63%, DA 18%, EFF 7%. Early results seem to be skewing rural but hard to tell for sure. No revolution one way or another today, it seems. VF+ is putting up strong results thus far with 5%, though, which would be a dramatic change if it carries forward.

VF+ voter share is bound to drop as the urban as well as the more heavily populated rural VDs get reported. But it still seems like the party is doing well compared to 2014; at least I do not recall seeing this many purple spots on the electoral IEC map last time. They have definately won more voting districts than usual.