Is there a GOP path without Florida? (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 29, 2024, 10:27:47 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  Is there a GOP path without Florida? (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Is there a GOP path without Florida?  (Read 2268 times)
Santander
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,032
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: 4.00, S: 2.61


« on: October 03, 2017, 10:28:04 AM »
« edited: October 03, 2017, 10:29:53 AM by Santander »

Yeah. If Dems do better with hispanics in Florida and Arizona but worse with wealthier socially liberal whites, they could lose Minnesota and New Hampshire. New Hampshire would make it a tie with the house of representatives picking the winner whereas just Minnesota would be enough for the republican nominee to win.

That said, I would still expect Florida to vote to the right of the nation for the time being.

The GOP did not lose New Hampshire because they didn't do well enough with wealthy Whites, what on Earth are you smoking?

$30k-$49.9k: 47% DEM, 45% GOP
$50k-$99.9k: 50% DEM, 46% GOP
$100k-$199.9k: 48% GOP, 47% DEM

In Minnesota, Trump's epic collapse among traditionally GOP voters in wealthier areas probably cost him the state (his "gains" with lower income voters and rural voters were so modest that they didn't even kind of make up for it), but you're completely off with New Hampshire.

Those are middle-income brackets...

And no, Florida does not exist in a vacuum, so losing Florida would almost certainly close other paths to victory, barring a 3-way race or some other scenario that changes the game in the rest of the country.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.019 seconds with 13 queries.