FiveThirtyEight Demographic Calculator Revisited: Can you make Trump win? (user search)
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  FiveThirtyEight Demographic Calculator Revisited: Can you make Trump win? (search mode)
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Author Topic: FiveThirtyEight Demographic Calculator Revisited: Can you make Trump win?  (Read 7636 times)
Fight for Trump
Santander
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,064
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: 4.00, S: 2.61
« on: May 07, 2016, 10:25:37 PM »
Quote from: whitesox130 on May 07, 2016, 09:35:00 PM
I just have a really hard time believing Trump will win 52% of college-educated whites, but I guess older ones might vote differently than the ones around my age.
I could see it happening. A lot of suburbanite Republicans are going to hold their nose and vote for Trump. At least half of my Republican friends between 25-35 are planning to vote for Trump, even if they supported the likes of Kasich, Rubio and Bush in the primaries. More will come around as reality sinks in. There are also a decent number of college-educated folks who have blue-collar backgrounds, e.g. those who went to school on the GI Bill, and most of them are going to be voting for Trump.
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Fight for Trump
Santander
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,064
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: 4.00, S: 2.61
« Reply #1 on: May 08, 2016, 12:20:30 AM »

Clinton: 266, 48.3%
Trump: 272, 49.9%

College-educated whites: 54% Trump, 77% Turnout
Non-college whites: 66% Trump, 69% Turnout
Blacks: 14% Trump, 65% Turnout
Hispanics: 29% Trump, 50% Turnout
Asians: 31% Trump, 49% Turnout

Trump gets within 0.1% in WI and PA and 0.2% in NH.
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