who would be favored in a Gonzalez v Noboa run off?
Noboa IMO, though the final margin in this round may be interesting in that regard. What unites him, Topic, and to a lesser extent Zurita is that their vote totals have all dramatically increased since the assassinations. That suggests voters went to all of them for the same reasons, albeit with different initial conclusions. One would expect consolidation in a runoff.
Also apparently there was a conspiracy theory that Gonzalez had something to do with the assassination.
Gotta say, if i had to bet a candidate was behind it, it would be Topic - shady paramilitary guy tied to mafia party who gained in the polls after his assassination?