United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[Blair]

If I run* should I do it as an independent or for Reform? I think independents have more chance of a victory than attaching a minor party label to your ballot line. Plus if you run for a party they might tell you that you have to run in some absolute hole in Sunderland or Southampton rather than in your local seat. However, Reform did ask me to apply for the local elections (I didn't). They're not a serious outfit though. The other issue is that I know my local MPs and don't really want to stand against them. Plus my local Labour candidate is kinda fit.

*Quite unlikely I actually go through with it but I've always wanted to do it.

Given your politics, presumably standing would help rather than hurt her?
Have Reform got anything to offer a prospective candidate such as yourself (pay for the deposit, activists to campaign etc)?

Yes but I currently use my relationship with the local MPs to get tickets into the gallery at PMQs - would I still be able to do that if I stood against her and she won? Then again do I want to watch PMQs if Starmer's PM and some weirdo like Jenrick's LOTO next year?

I don't want to sound like I'm bragging but money isn't an issue and I have more willing friends locally than Reform has activists. The only advantage Reform has is that they (allegedly) stole a list of (alleged) email and (alleged) physical addresses from the (alleged) local Tory party when somebody (allegedly) defected.

I think it's an interesting phenomenon that across the world it seems people will have a better chance by running with "Independent" after their name than if they run for a minor party or start their own party.

Running as an independent is difficult as you have to do all the legal processes yourself- getting enough nominations to get on the ballot, finding a way to design, print, pay for and deliver leaflets and then finding a credible set of local issues to run on; if you want to run as a paper candidate apply for the Tories will make you stand in an ultra safe seat or reform as you say- who might be more open to letting you stand in a neighbouring seat.

[Blair]

The real uncertainty I have is the liberals; the polling shows they have lost what 30% of their 2019 vote to Labour and there will be a number of seats where they get overtaken by Labour but equally when you look at the swings they were getting in the 2022 and 2023 locals you can see a case for them doing better than labour in some of these south-east & south-west shire seats.

Btw, Laura K and Clive Myrie are being lined up as co-hosts of the BBC coverage.

Ugh, just give it to Myrie. You need someone with a bit of authority and gravitas in the chair, especially in that first hour after polls close, when representatives from both parties are trying desperately to spin the exit poll into something it's clearly not.

I've always been a BBC guy on election night, but if it's an option between "Laura K" nodding sagely in agreement as Ric Holden assures her the Tories can still win, and Beth Rigby verbally skewering whichever poor cabinet sod gets wheeled out on Sky to convince us Rome isn't burning, I know which option I'll be picking.

ITV actually had quite good coverage last time; I'm certainly not a huge fan of either Gideon or Ed B but they had a good rotating cast of ex politicians, good lobby journalists and just had an interesting format- there really is a niche for a very in-depth and analytical election night program. The BBC feel a need to do a 'well this really nerdy...' when most people watching it at 2am already know what it is and that they are one...

But yes it's strange to put someone as unpopular as Laura K in it- her sunday show has hardly been a success.

[Blair]

And today Sunak has a re-election pitch that seems to amount to "things are so dangerous and scary that you can't risk voting for anyone else, but give us another five years - totally ignoring our record for the previous 14 - and everything will suddenly become wonderful. Honest!"

Seriously, who is advising him on this stuff?

He had a very telling rant about how actually the current problems are not a result of 14 years of Tory rule which basically admitted that labours framing is working!

[Blair]

Love that they’re calling a GE on the basis of the economy when for the first time in 50 years the opposition Labour Party are leading on the economy.

But remember he’s much smarter than all of us

[Blair]

Lol drenched in rain with Labours de facto campaign song in the background.

Bringing up the smoking ban as a highlight of his tenure is so sad and desperate, wow.

A sign of a man whose advisers can’t seem to tell him no.

[Blair]

I wonder what the Tories learnt from their local election data

[Blair]

A question; will the ‘purdah’ rules which mean that the Government can’t act politically during a GE mean that deportation flights to Rwanda can’t happen?

There’s a very good argument they’re a political act in theory

[Blair]

It’s fun noticing what the Tories are saying as they always obsess and focus group phrases- latest seems to be their ‘plan’ which is weird as it’s common knowledge they don’t have much of an idea for a manifesto.

Also bizarre they still want to make Rwanda the big issue; which many people keep telling them just reminds people of their unpopularity and failure

[Blair]

...why is he even in Northern Ireland? I can vaguely see it later on in the campaign to look statesmanlike or something (I suppose), but right now? It isn't as if his party is standing any candidates there?

Something something 'four nation tour' something something 'unionist'

[Blair]

One very early view is that the these things build and build and as campaigns suffer and commit gaffe everyone looks for evidence of it; obviously many days to go but it is hard to see how the Conservatives can skim even 5-10 points off the lead (which still seems them lose & a Labour Majority) when they are not doing the basics right.

A very broad history of election campaigns in the UK (which we have a limited dataset!) shows that there have only been what 2 elections since 1945 when an unpopular government in poor form has been be able to run an inspiring and winning campaign; and in both those there was a Liberal/SDP/Lib Dem vote to squeeze & a labour leadership not trusted...

[Blair]

A genuine 'oh christ'; he is the type of person they really need in opposition, especially if they are on 150 seats. He is, for his many faults, an experienced and skilled operator and one of the few people who has stayed in the arena throughout the years; the tories have him to thank for the fact that the building safety crisis is less of an electoral issue than it could have been!

He of course would have known his seat was a top Lib Dem Target; like with Raaaaab I wonder if him not running actually helps as there can sometimes be a negative incumbency bonus when the figure is a high profile & well known figure; it's easy to get even Labour members to vote Liberal if they know they are getting rid of Gove, or Raaaaaab

[Blair]

It's 79 now, with the addition of Gove:

"A total of 78 Tories are stepping down — higher than the exodus of Tories [72 MPs] who quit before Blair’s ’97 landslide."

Andrea Leadsom reportedly to make it 80.

Given she was the minister behind the inane "lets try and oust sunak right now for six months more pay" idea, not unsurprising.

An hilarous sub plot was her efforts for years to get back into ministerial office; she was ofc the person who offered the amendment which sought to save Owen Paterson which some of us take as the moment that the Conservatives begun crashing down

[Blair]

Sunak is campaigning in a well-known marginal seat...his own.

Tbf after the North Yorkshire Mayoral results it wouldn't be a terrible idea!

[Blair]

The obsession with Brand Rishi and the excitement a lot of centre-right commentators have over him (he can do an excel sheet!) has really ignored the fact he is a lousy campaigner; he was pretty terrible in the 2022 Leadership race; forgotten now but he made a big pious point of saying 'we can't afford tax cuts' and then pivoted to tax cuts when he realised he was losing. He also kept doing a weird thing about 'protecting our women'... and well we all see how he was during the locals.

The thing that would worry me if I was a Tory MP is that this was planned; they have know for a month or so they were going for July and they decided one of there last big announcements as a Government would be around gender guidance to schools!

 

[Blair]

It was quite fun to come back from the pub to see the reaction after missing the actual news…

Haven’t seen a policy go down so badly with the commentariat and activists in a while- the biggest flaw is that if it was such a good idea why haven’t they tried it in Government?

I suspect they will get journalists laughing at them soon when they ask about this- it is a terrible policy! The best example I saw was someone who said their daughter had become a prison officer at 18 and asked why on earth should she be expected to volunteer at weekends when she is already doing a very terrible job.

The Military will hate this; they were in favour of getting rid of NS as it was a waste of time and just meant that had to spend a lot of time babysitting people who wanted to leave. The only person I knew who did it said his time was spend mostly drinking in German while fixing vans

[Blair]

The obsession with Brand Rishi and the excitement a lot of centre-right commentators have over him (he can do an excel sheet!) has really ignored the fact he is a lousy campaigner; he was pretty terrible in the 2022 Leadership race; forgotten now but he made a big pious point of saying 'we can't afford tax cuts' and then pivoted to tax cuts when he realised he was losing. He also kept doing a weird thing about 'protecting our women'... and well we all see how he was during the locals.

The thing that would worry me if I was a Tory MP is that this was planned; they have know for a month or so they were going for July and they decided one of there last big announcements as a Government would be around gender guidance to schools!

Is that so? It was widely reported the week after the local elections that Number 10 actually made a point of telling the party any summer election was OFF and they could make plans accordingly.

Ha yeah! Was briefed to the Times that Sunaks mini circle basically created a ‘July election’ as plan A a month ago I think even before the locals which makes all this a lot more hilarious

[Blair]

Some people are doing the whole 'well actually real people love this' but it's quite telling that the policy is already falling apart & Labour appear quite happy to let this take up an entire day of the campaign.

The latent blairite in me is coming out but it's telling that one of their first campaign announcements is being briefed as being about winning back reform voters rather than going for the people who will actually decide the election!

A certain "pollster" (*not* the world's worst PolProf this time) is screaming at anybody who will listen "you have all got this completely wrong - this is a masterstroke and an incredibly popular policy!"

I thought it was weird & then realised they were the outfit behind the polling that inwards or whatever that stupid Tory think tank is called included in their report on it; it has been pointed out the questions are actually very similar to the Yes Minister Sketch.

[Blair]

There is also, from anecdotal experience, a lot more sympathy for people of that age group in terms of the lack of a social contract; especially for people with family members that age.

People are able to look at house prices, the cost of university, the cost of renting etc and work out that people of that age aren't exactly getting an easy ride.

I got particularly annoyed to see Cameron tweet some crap about young people needing to give back to their communities; love being told that by a PR man who decided to give back at that age by check notes studying PPE at Oxford and working as a PR man and CCHQ staffer

[Blair]

Going well. Another day for Labour to sit with their huge opinion poll lead and to be happy that we are not talking about taxation.

https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1794845627765104901

[Blair]

His majority is very low (4K) and was going the wrong way in 2017/2019 but doing that would basically be mad; he is a relatively active constituency MP and holds a job in a role (NI office) where you really need ministers even during election period.

[Blair]

They're trying to lose, aren't they?

Honestly seems that way, doesn't it? Calling the election on a lark when the party is unprepared in over 200 constituencies. Blair-ing "Things Can Only Get Better" over his election call while he was busy getting drenched head-to-toe by heavy rain because No. 10 apparently forgot the concept of an indoor speech after COVID. His Welsh football mistake. Docking the sinking ship at the Titanic Quarter in Belfast because the Tory just had to go on a 4-nation tour like Nixon went to Hawaii in 1960. Trusting Gove to not retire. One-up'ing a tepidly unpopular Starmer announcement by announcing certifiably insane policy. If he's a Labour mole playing the long game, I'm not sure what he should've done any differently to kick the campaign off. I'm just sayin', if we never actually ruled out Truss being a secret Lib Dem mole solely intent on taking the Tories down, maybe we can't rule out a guy who was 16 in 1997 being a secret Blair fanboy either

I think I've said on here before that Sunak has never really figured out whether he wants to be the adult in the room or a red meat-throwing populist.

It's this fundamental disconnect, combined with clearly crap political instincts as well as an ultra-rich person awkwardness that could well turn this into one of the worst campaigns that any of us have ever seen. If the Tories have any sense they should stop him from running this as a presidential campaign immediately.

He has obviously been in Parliament for 8 years & I don't always like the comparisons with the US, but he seems extremely similar to business people who enter politics in the states and waste millions on expensive advisers who tell him different things which leads to them having 4-5 different 'versions'

[Blair]

In today's summary a sitting Minister has called the Conservatives flagship policy terrible, CCHQ has accidently called their own MPs lazy and revealed they lack funding & a Tory MP has had the whip removed for endorsing reform.

Labour once again just need to stand still.

On the Lib Dems my very rough predication is for them to land around 30-50 MPs, but once you start playing with tactical voting and pushing all sides to their limits it's really not that hard to get to a position where they could be less than 50 seats between them & the Conservatives- ironically it would actually be Labours high watermark that would limit the liberals; if you took some of their old urban seats that Labour now hold you could add 20 or so seats perhaps?

[Blair]

The tories latest masterplan is too attack Keir as 'sleepy'; this was long planned as those sad enough (me!) to read the rubbish CCHQ Spads brief out know that they said months ago they would make Keir's age (he's 61) an issue in the election.

It is rather odd as it appears to just be annoying people in their 60s and also he doesn't look 61, nor does he look look tired...

[Blair]

Highlight of the day was a BBC vox pop in Richmond (The Yorkshire one) asking pensioners what they thought about the new quadruple lock- all said they liked it, although with the addition that they wouldn't have been supporting Labour anyway.

[Blair]

Wee bit of candidate news:

LBC’s Iain Dale has quit radio to run for the Tories in Tunbridge Wells. 15k majority in 2019, and held by the party since its 1974 creation.

And in Birmingham Northfield (one of Labour’s easiest target seats), the Labour candidate Alex Aiken is standing down over “personal challenges which have arisen recently”.

Dale is fascinating; was chief of staff to David Davis, and a firm Brexiteer but over the recent years has been more of a Tory Wet- for those who listen to his podcast it’s quite funny as he has been a strong critic of the government over immigration (he’s very pro) and various other issues.

The nature of his radio show means he can claim to have a relatively wide ranging interest in policy that isn’t exactly typical for a Tory; he did a lot on British airways poor treatment of staff during covid.

He would be an interesting MP; but I am surprised as it’s signing up for 5 years in opposition.