Conservative Party of the UK Leadership Election, 2022

[Blair]

I assume Tugendhat doesn't actually have much of a chance?

It all depends on how the first few rounds go- the ‘one nation’ caucus is large enough that if it unites it can deliver a lot for a candidate. They essentially swung behind May in 2016 and won it for her.

I don’t know why Hunt doesn’t drop out and endorse him- all he will do is take 20 or so MPs from him.

Sunak is in, apparently. Setting up an HQ.

I actually thought he might not run after the recent months- I think he would be a lot easier for Labour than people expect.

[Blair]

There was talk about changing the nomination requirements to stop vanity, troll or joke campaigns. It would make sense to require at least 10 signatures to get on the ballot.

[Blair]

I have to think that from Labour's point of view the dream Tory leader would have to be Liz Truss. Who would be better to run against than a Cruella DeVil-type "rich bitch" guaranteed to make any remaining "red wall" Tory voters drop the Tories like a hot potato!

Another factor people will be too polite to say publicly is the fact that so much of the Tory voter base and membership are racists - and if they were to make Sunak, Javid or Zawahi the new Tory leader - a lot of the "white working class" pro-Brexit types in the so-called Red Wall seats who were attracted to BoJo will be instantly turned off and will not vote at all in the next election.

The bottom part isn’t true remotely though- even among the Tory membership there are very few of these types. We know this because the Tory membership in safe tory shire seats has a record of selecting non-white candidates.

Does the party have a problem with Islamophobia and islamophobic attitudes? Yes. But  it doesn’t extend to Tory voters refusing to vote for someone like Rishi Sunak.

[Blair]

People confuse the type of red wall voters you see on facebook (who shout abuse about Sadiq Khan and post memes about 50s life) with the actual reality of what they are.

[Blair]

It says a lot about Wallace that I thought he was in the 2015 intake rather than the 2005 one!

[Blair]

Grant Shapps is also in.

I've seen a bit of hype for Michael Green Grant Shapps over the past few days. Could someone explain his supposed appeal? His management of the rail strikes (spending all his time on tv instead of making negotiations happen/succeed) doesn't give the impression of someone ready to run the country.

He is the prime example of how a very bad cabinet means that people who were mildly competent previously become seen as rocksolid performers.

He has broadly been quite good at transport in the sense of not creating any disasters, he’s quite good on the telly and seeing as relatively non-ideological. I always thought he would be made Home Sec for this reason.

[Blair]

I don’t really think that much of the lobby or coverage has considered just how march the Parliamentary Conservative party has changed since 2019- I think the 2019 intake has about 100 people in it.

[Blair]

John Baron mulling a run.

[Blair]

Can absolutely any Tory MP run for leader and be on the ballot or is there any requirement for a minimum number of MP "endorsements" to be a candidate?

To be decided by 1922. Was only 2 MPs one time but expect it will be higher along with a required minimum after each round (e.g anyway below 20 votes is out)

With this many serious campaigns, combined with jokes ones we could see a very funny first round where no one gets more than 40.

[Blair]

It’s a good example of vibes- I imagine people see him as more likely to be an NCO (even though he was an officer) compared to Tugendhat who very much comes off as a staff officer.

The later is also frequently lambasted by the right as being a europhile despite only rebelling once during the Brexit years.

[Blair]

Rishi has launched with a backstory heavy video- talks about his grandparents humble background as he certainly didn’t have one.

Noted heavyweight Jacob Young is backing him… along with the actually influential Mark Harper.

https://mobile.twitter.com/JacobYoungMP/status/1545426975166238723?ref_src=twsrc...

[Blair]

Oh please stop. There’s such a camp chaotic energy that Labour leaderships lack. You need to click ten tweet to see the punchline!

https://mobile.twitter.com/Samfr/status/1545450527877636096

[Blair]

Briefings put out Javid should drop out for Sunak.

At this early stage I assume it’s likely Sunak gets to the final round- going to be hilarious if they Braverman up against him and she ends up winning.

[Blair]

FT reporting nominations will open on Tuesday, with the first ballot on Wednesday and then another the day after.

Do they have hustings at the MPs stage? It seems bizarre not to and just vote on vibes, job offers and petty feuds.

[Blair]

What are the core differences between Sunak and Truss outiside the latter being a halfwit? It seems like a very similar front 2 in terms of wing if the party. I understand Sunaks appeal to the more moderates though.

Fundamentally they're pretty similar so it's mostly a case of positioning, but Sunak is much fussier about things like budget deficits and fiscal rectitude, while Truss thinks that free tax cuts are a thing you can have even without a windfall of cash. Truss has also leaned much more into stupid Culture War nonsense, but, again, 'positioning'.

The crucial thing about Truss is that if the events of 2016 had gone differently you just know she would be running as a cameronite- she has basically moulded into whatever the present leadership support.

FT reporting nominations will open on Tuesday, with the first ballot on Wednesday and then another the day after.

Do they have hustings at the MPs stage? It seems bizarre not to and just vote on vibes, job offers and petty feuds.

what is a husting?

It is where the candidates sit in a room and answer a series of questions from journalists or MPs.

They will do it with the membership when it gets to the final two.  

[Blair]

To be cruel Braverman is getting the right wing fossils whereas Badenoch is getting the right wing idiots in the 2019 intake.

I very much feel Shapps is running in the hope of securing a better job

[Blair]

There will also be stuff that can't be published but which will be told to MPs, whispered by campaigns & spread around.

This appears to be a very early warning to MPs 'don't put X into the final round as Labour will beat them once they uncover x'.

[Blair]

Interested to get other peoples’ take on Hunt announcing he wants Esther McVey as Deputy PM. I get that he’s trying to broaden his appeal, but I think there’s a natural limit to how far you can plausibly stretch your ideology, before you lose credibility and alienate your own base.

I’m reminded of John Redwood endorsing Ken Clark over William Hague in 1997, in return for being named Shadow Chancellor, and tanking Clark’s credibility in the process.

Sign of weakness- she was very very anti Boris (from the right) and lacks a gathering in the party. She was only a SOS for 8 months.

 If it was someone like David Davis it would have more heft.

[Blair]

Penny Mordaunt seems to be running as the most moderate of the potential winners, albeit she’s just done a long Twitter thread talking about ‘what is a woman’ (and how she’s definitely not woke whatever her rivals claim).

I think it’s a bit more complicated than that- she was being heavily criticised by various people on the right of the party over her stance on transgender rights which in her defence was the same as the mainstream stance in the Conservative party until 2019

[Blair]

Lol best bit of open blue on blue.

Goldsmith is a close ally of the PM

https://mobile.twitter.com/ZacGoldsmith/status/1546079326923362305?ref_src=twsrc...

[Blair]

Patel will be deciding tonight but briefing that Braverman and Badenoch should leave the race for her-  very unlikely and won’t be shocked if she decides not to run.

It’s a joke to be Home Sec and come last!

This is probably also the biggest contest I reckon we’ll get- a serving Chancellor, Foreign Sec, Home Sec, Transport Sec and former Health, Chancellor and Foreign Sec. A sign of Johnsonism is that he has no heir

[Blair]

Priti Patel rumoured to be launching a late bid. She now has more supporters than Braverman…

It’s interesting looking at Mourdants supporters- they seem to lack an ideological consistency.

[Blair]

Priti Patel rumoured to be launching a late bid. She now has more supporters than Braverman…

It’s interesting looking at Mourdants supporters- they seem to lack an ideological consistency.

Patel is a (marginally) better option for the ERG types than Braverman. Patel is also more tested/vetted, I doubt there’s much more dirt on her to come out.

She does have something insane like -48 favourability so you could argue she hasn’t got a reputation to ruin!

I think she wants a clear shot in that lane and doesn’t want the indignity of going out early on- so seems to be pushing Braverman to quit and back her.

[Blair]

With the big caveat that these people probably don’t have votes I would be a bit worried about the hostility towards Rishi- including some nutty stuff about the WEF, and him being part of a remain cabal.

It’s baseless conspiracy theories ofc whipped up by a very small number but it’s a sign of the times…

[Blair]

The optics of the JRM/Dorries endorsement are odd. The two wandered out of No.10 after Cabinet, as though sent by Boris, and nattered for a few minutes about what a good brexiteer she is. As the camera pans away at the end, Dorries suddenly jumps and adds “And she’s a woman!”

Dominic Raab gave about as enthusiastic a speech as the man can (he still sounds a bit like an exhausted primary school teacher). In his own speech, Sunak is trying to walk the tightrope between ‘Boris is a nice bloke’ and ‘it’s a good thing he’s gone’. Lots of “I’m going to be straight with you, even if it costs me votes” rhetoric. He’s playing hard for that “only sensible candidate in the race” label.

Gavin Williamson (former chief whip, who still holds some sway in the party, and was an early May and Johnson backer) also seen hanging around at the Sunak launch campaign.

Over in the Penny Mordaunt camp, they’ve just picked up the support of former Brexit Secretary David Davis, who’s playing two cards - “she’s the only electable one” and “she’s the only one who could beat Rishi Sunak”. Probably an endorsement that the Javid, Hunt or Tugendhat camp would be jealous of, but Mordaunt is big enough now that I’m not sure Davis will make too much a difference for her. Definitely better for her than him choosing Truss though.

A lot of people on the Labour left discovered that they had no real power, influence or standing when Corbyn left- it gave a very similar vibe to that. Hardly anyone, even in the parliamentary party, cares what they think.