Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Blair]

Once it's accepted that the US is not going to put ground troops into Ukraine than a military solution is basically off the table from the NATO side; even the whole of the EU would not be able to muster an Army that would make a difference and frankly I think we're saving that actual panic for when one of the NATO Article 5 allies gets invaded and we actually need to put on a show.

[Blair]

Whatever else one thinks, it is clear that the existing European security architecture has not led to a sense of security for either Russia or Ukraine.

Why would it? Ukraine was virtually under Russias influence until 2014- and when it tried to leave to join part of the ‘security architecture’ in 2014 it saw Crimea invaded and the east invaded.

I’m not sure what the alternative is? Without the former soviet republics joining NATO we would have seen this playbook happen every two or three years.

[Blair]

Ukraine should give up Donbass at this point, and give up NATO membership as well, in exchange for continued sovereignty. If Russia pushes further, surrender without fighting.

An analogy is this: when being robbed, you give up exactly what the robber asks for. Your possessions aren’t worth your life. Similarily, Ukraine’s sovereignty is not worth having hundreds of thousands of people die.

Worth noting they did this in 2014- didn’t fight over Crimea.

There’s a risk that no matter what they agree Putin will still come back.

[Blair]

I’m curious if the delay in sending lethal aid years ago had an impact at all.

[Blair]

Historic speech by Olaf Scholz. Germany completely changes its defense policy. It sounded like he would invest 100 billion EURO right here and now in military equipment and from now on spend at least 2% of GDP yearly on defense. This will furthermore have a ripple effect in that other NATO countries - like my own - have been hiding behind Germany in not spending the 2%. That will almost certainly change now.

This could actually be a real turning point. It could also signal a new world order where democratic Europe rises from the pathetic depence on the United States.

It’s worth noting ofc that even at the height of the Cold War the land forces between each side were not hugely outmatched in quality- and that was with a much larger USSR and a number of Warsaw Pact states.

Putin cannot go toe to toe with a U.K. France and Germany at Cold War levels of spending- along with other countries like Poland.

[Blair]

I'm saying this with no real knowledge beyond a hunch but it always felt that that there was a space for an agreement which saw some sort of commitment around NATO membership, a possible carve out of the areas in Eastern Ukraine that have been controlled since 2014 by Russian forces & accepting Crimea.

[Blair]

In the Soviet war in Afghanistan antiseptics were often sold as an alcoholic substitute and drunk by officers- which meant they had to use petrol to treat wounds.

[Blair]

An interesting counterfactual is that back in 2014 the Ukrainian military was seen as not only extremely weak but also largely a paper tiger- they had a number of embarrassing defeats against the militias in the east of the country and their army was largely reliant on old Soviet era equipment.