This Once Great Movement Of Ours

[Blair]

More generally though it's funny how the discussion within Labour has switched from the post-referendum 'We'll only win back Scotland if we follow my pre-ordained policy positions' to 'who the F**K knows'.

It was widely mentioned when phonebanking in the '15 election by JC supporters that he'd win Scottish seats back (something that to his credit he did) but by 2020 election it was barely discussed at all; like there's virtual agreement across the party that there is no obvious route back.

I use to suscribe to the more zealot based view of SLab being a firm unionist party, strongly supporting remain & opposing Brexit; while having the policy flexibility we saw with Welsh Labour. But honestly with the dire state we're in & the threat to union (and by extension the future of a Labour majority) you almost wonder if supporting indy-ref 2, giving Findlay the leadership and just completely turning the whole thing upside might actually be more worthwhile.

[Blair]

And as a third & final point I thought Leonard was actually doing very well after the exams fiasco; it was the first time I saw him get widespread coverage down here & manage to get the SNP to really panic.

[Blair]

I can't believe I'm having to say this again, but please note that Scotland does not vote in a vacuum from the rest of the United Kingdom. If Labour as a nationwide entity is popular enough to be challenging for government, then they will be popular enough in Scotland to win some seats; see the 2017 general election, in which they won 7 seats and came very close in quite a few others, and the party nationwide was not challenging for power in that election despite a decent result. Now this obviously does not mean a return to pre-2014 domination, but it does probably mean that Labour can do reasonably well enough in Glasgow, Lothian and Fife to contribute enough seats to a potential nationwide majority.

Maybe in a Westminster Election where the SNP are doing badly; but we're currently seeing Labour hit national polling levels between 35-40% while getting 14% in the Scottish Parliament Elections.

And obviously it depends heavily on the SNP performance; which was pretty awful in 2017.

[Blair]

I think they got 22% in 2016 which was partly down to an extremely high Tory vote; so it’s a very worrying.

[Blair]

I think the reason why it feels like Starmer is oversteering is that the ideological direction of the last 10 years within Labour has been towards the left; there was a gap which the party could comfortably step into.  Miliband made a public apology over Iraq, focused his political strategy heavily on Liberal Democrat voters & slowly repaired the relationship with the Trade Unions over issues like spending, austerity & the NHS.

Corbyn then obviously turbocharged this with rejecting austerity, opposing air strikes in Syria and putting public sector spending right at the centre of the campaign.

Both steps certainly needed to be done & I'm not someone who thinks that there was some neo-Blairite route for the party after the crash that would have worked.

However I think a lot of the reaction to what Starmer has or more specifically hasn't said is rooted around there being a basic assumption that since 2014 the leadership will generally try its best to aim for the ideological safety of the left.*

On the topic of blue Labour like all labour factions the worse advocates are the people in it. A collection of blowhards, weirdos and cosplayers.

The interesting thing is that I've always felt that Labour can appeal to the abstract 'blue labour' target voter without having to actually embrace the politics of blue Labour; Corbyn did so extremely well on police cuts for example.




*obvious exceptions to this in the Immigration Act 2014, the Welfare Vote in '15.

[Blair]

The best line from the Stephen Bush piece was this...

It’s odd,” one shadow cabinet staffer muses, “because I feel like I have a lot of freedom, but of course, when I sit down and think, ‘OK, what’s a Keir Starmer response to this?’ you realise that the general tone has been set sufficiently strongly that it’s just they don’t need to tell us what to do a lot of the time.”

This is the key element of the Labour Party. You even saw it very subtly during the Corbyn era with the fact that even people on the right of the party felt comfortable embracing lines on school spending & the NHS.

It trickles down & down; the junior ministers, the advisors & staff, the local councillors, the PPCs for 2024 & even the new 2019 intake will all slowly. Of course some of this is the grifters willing to allign with anything for a job but equally the reason why you had devoute Blairites running the Labour Party in 2017 was because devout Blairites gave them jobs in '97 & '01.

The Leader sets the tone of the party much more so than the Conservative Party which is already run more akin to a a series of relaxed fiefdoms that co-operate every 5 years; the differences in structure of the two parties alone shows this (the almost obsessive levels of organisational layers in the Labour party compared with the complete lack of anything similar in the Tories)

Although ultimately to be melodramatic we won't know the influence of Starmer on the party until we know who his successor is; the complete lack of an ideological core in 2015 showed how someone like Corbyn won & the incompetence of LOTO by 2019 showed why someone like Starmer one.

There's a chance 2024 could see someone from the SCG win as a reaction to Starmer but equally Jonny Reynolds winning in 2027 could show Starmerism was a success.

[Blair]

The no confidence motion due to be tabled at today's ScotLab meeting against leader Richard Leonard has apparently been withdrawn. Hard to see that as meaning anything other than the plotters falling short of the numbers needed to succeed.

Funnily enough it actually appears that they might have had the numbers but then the Young Labour rep got disqualified so the unions backed off.

Of course because it's Labour the unions (USDAW & GMB, Leonards own union!) had briefed they were going to vote him down & well are now looking stupid.

[Blair]

Amazing incompetence. He's basically untouchable now, and will continue to be a useless walking skeleton right up until he's ground into the dust in May. They had one job and they've managed to make it worse. A nice reminder that the Labour Right don't deserve power any more than the Left do.

Scottish Labour Right fwiw.

[Blair]

Ed Miliband's performance today showed rightfully why Starmers team tend to lean quite heavily on him- one of the better commons performances I've seen by the end of it (he seemed a bit wobbly at first but I think it was a style thing)

Landed a number of good hits on Johnson & actually reminded me quite a lot of how Hague use to approach opposition where he tended to slaughter Gordon Brown. It's quite liberating to be a former leader.

[Blair]

Ed Miliband's performance today showed rightfully why Starmers team tend to lean quite heavily on him- one of the better commons performances I've seen by the end of it (he seemed a bit wobbly at first but I think it was a style thing)

Landed a number of good hits on Johnson & actually reminded me quite a lot of how Hague use to approach opposition where he tended to slaughter Gordon Brown. It's quite liberating to be a former leader.

Why was Milliband unable to win in 2015 and why was Cameron able to get his reputration quite down at the time, making him appear like a weird person? (see: That infamous sandwich photo for instance)

It's a question in two halfs; Ed spent a lot of his leadership lurching from idea to idea, all while dealing with a Labour Party which he had very little power over (his shadow cabinet for the first 3 years had no-one who supported him holding big jobs other than Sadiq Khan) His leadership on reflection was very rudderless but thanks to the sh**tshow of the coalition it was very good at tactical victories which betrayed the strategic realities of the election (see below)

His biggest problem was that he came across as he was; an ex-political staffer who was playing the role he'd seen Labour Ministers play. After he lost in 2015 he certainly realised he didn't have to follow this role as much; he swore a lot more, embraced his geekyness & like all political figures we love them once they're powerless (Portillo, Balls, Clarke)

When the campaign came he'd been quite damaged by a bad conferece speech (where he forgot the defecit) & a poor scottish referendum campaign which showed he was relatively disliked by Labour voters.

What turned a 35-33% loss into a 37-30 loss was that people didn't see Ed as a suitable candidate for PM & didn't trust Ed Balls to run the economy.

The campaign had nothing to really counter this beyond a small but unambitious retail offer to voters (mocked quite well as vote Labour and win a microwave). The conservatives ran a very good campaign considering what they were actually offering to voters

Corbyn for all his flaws in 2017 was able to counter the low ratings because people thought he A.) Wasn't a normal politician B.) Was offering something different.

[Blair]

FWIW his team released the speech to the media with the section he didn't include; which was very much the type of row that the media loved back then.

Looking back it does seem that our media consumption, voting patterns & general attitudes really are going to be shifted by Brexit; there were so many events in the 2010-2015 parliament (and campaigns) which were treated as major moments which frankly would struggle to get in the Top 50 for what we've been through.

[Blair]

FWIW didn’t we have this whole debate When RLB did her progressive patriotism article?

And there's some wretched Twitter rumpus about Nandy supposedly saying "Britain first".

(it appears that perhaps she didn't, but what *were* her exact words?)

My first thought was that this might be a hangover from the leadership election; I remember the level of vitriolic attacks on Nandy were quite high and I remember being extremely thankful that the very online lot spent a lot time attacking her rather than Keir...

[Blair]

In news three PPS’s (lowest level of the front bench, bag carriers to shadow ministers) have left after rebelling to vote against the Overseas Operations Bill; when the labour line was to abstain.

Ofc one of them Nadia Whitthome found out live on TV as she assumed she could break the whip and stay on the frontbench.

I don’t use it anymore but seems to be some low level anger over it; ironically no-one cares about the other two quitting.

The bigger news is that others didn’t quit; Sam Tarry, Nav Mishra, Kim Johnson and Dan Carden all remain.

This will shift the FB to the right but give the SCG 3 more votes

[Blair]

https://news.sky.com/story/leicester-east-mp-claudia-webbe-charged-with-harassment-against-female-12084430

[Blair]

I might be wrong but don't most cases go to a Magistrates first before then being sent to the Crown Court?

[Blair]

The shocking revelation for me is that googlebox is still on TV.

I don't understand the argument; is it that this reveals that the public do not like Starmer or that Starmer will not be liked because he's getting slagged off on gogglebox?

[Blair]

Ha

https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1313541876314644485

[Blair]

Some thoughts.

1.) I wonder if this is a pre-emptive kick off over the UNITE v UNISON war over numbers; UNITE have for years claimed to be the biggest union in the UK & have used this to dominate the union relationship. I wonder if this is the way of accepting they're not & getting out ahead.

2.) 'We're fed up with being taken for granted'. They were not taken for granted. That implies that Keir actually took UNITE for anything other than a colossal annoyance who have tried to fight his political project from day one.

There's basically three approaches in my view in Labour; you're my ally I'll eat sh**t for, you're someone I have a mutual interest in working with or you're someone I'm actively trying to screw over. UNITE were always firmly in the last camp with Starmer so god knows why they think anything was expected from them

3.) COVID! UNITE have generally got their main outward asks from the Labour Leadership- MPs & the Shadow Cabinet have been vocal in fighting for the aviation industry, opposed the British Airways & British Gas fire & rehire program & have generally hugged the left closest on economic issues (it's been security & cultural issues where the ground has been broken. However this isn't about industrial politics this is about Labour politics....

4.) There's probably UNITE internal politics in this. The very messy united left primary for GS went about as badly as internal elections go (although the police weren't called- the usual sign of chaos in certain CLPs) with people claiming vote rigging & so forth; the anti-Starmer choice Howard Beckett narrowly lost to the actually more left wing but less hostile Steve Turner.

Beckett is making noises about running in the full election; which could split the left vote & let in an actual moderate. So this could be either a pro-Beckett faction running interference or Turner people trying to appear loyal.

And of course it could be the fact that Len is still leader & has a term that ends in 2022 (!?) Talk about lame duck...


The last two points comes back to my central & ongoing complaint with UNITE- they're a good industrial union with generally good & skilled officals who work well with people across the movement.

However they're just let down by an overtly political executive who enjoy seeing themselves in the newspapers & who actively used the last 2 two years of Corbyns leadership to amass power, stitch up selections & ruin the party. This is not a new issue & these threats over money were made in 2014 when Len threatened to set up a 'workers party'.

There is a clear trend between the moment that the UNITE axis took over & when the party went down the drain. I can't even go through the long list of cock ups, court cases & general mayhem but where as UNITE were once a voice of moderation (they wanted Angela Eagle as Shadow Chancellor) they quickly realised they'd could shaft UNISON/GMB, work with the smaller left unions & effectively run the Labour Party- which they did!

On a final disclaimer I generally have no issue with the CWU or the TSSA; both of whom are actually further away from my own politics I'd reckon than the average UNITE offical. Of course the average UNITE member is well to my right- but we forget in all of this that UNITE officals don't equal UNITE members.

[Blair]

In depressing news it appears to be linked to anti-semitism & settling with whistleblowers.

Ask Johnny Depp or Meghan Markle how well libel trials go.

Or perhaps ask Anna Turley about the due dilligence that UNITE have about legal costs?

It's been as good as confirmed that Beckett was behind this. Such an impressively stupid man.

I saw someone on the NEC joked that Beckett tries to come across as a legal expert but was shut down by Starmer, who might have a slightly better claim to understanding the law.

[Blair]

Thoughts very welcome on this...

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2020/10/anneliese-dodds-biggest-enemy-isn-t-rishi-sunak-it-s-covid-19

[Blair]

Ha

However they're just let down by an overtly political executive who enjoy seeing themselves in the newspapers

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/len-mccluskey-interview-ive-always-liked-keir-starmer-im-going-to-be-his-left-wing-conscience-h3k7wvk05

The interview is a real treat.

The money that they've stopped giving to Labour is going to be spent on the campaign to find Pidcock a safe seat, Len sees himself as the lefts greatest strategist & he's only just worked out that the point of Starmerism is to get rid of Corbynism without any realising but he wants him to be more subtle about it.

[Blair]

Some thoughts.

I was midly surprised Greenwood quit; although tbh I expect this is no loss. She was an extremely poor Shadow Secretary of State at the DWP & was treading water as Schools Minister; a job she got I assume because RLB picked her.

The bigger surprise is that both Angela Rayners PPS's quit over this; Nav Mishra & Kim Johnson who are both campaign group MPs but both saddle the middle of the group. God knows who get it seeing as almost all the 2019 intake are either serial rebels or on the FB already.

It was ashame to lose Dan Carden; who has been an extremely skilled Minister & brought some much needed flair to a Treasury Team needing it. I hope someone good is given it; perhaps Alison McGovern or Angela Eagle?

In terms of THE PROJECT: This pretty much means that Keir has kicked the Campaign Group out of the Frontbench (Rachel Maskell & Sam Tarry remain) I wouldn't be shocked to see Sam Tarry get a promotion out of this in the big chair shuffle coming up; with two ministerial posts to fill & what 5 PPS current vacant this might need some changes.

My honest view is that this bill is actually a lot easier to justify abstaining on compared to the Overseas Operations Bill but that's another debate for a page that isn't about this glorious movement.

Although the coward in me would just make it a free vote. I don't get the weird & outdated view on what is and isn't an issue of 'conscience'...

I really don't know why this is the hill Starmer wants to die on. The general public could not care less about this bill and all it's doing is pissing people in and out of the party off. He needs to be very early not to squander the early advantages he's built up among the public by leading a party that does not seem much more united than when it was under the Senile Racist....

I'm not sure the unity thing is a huge issue; as the story remains 'left wing MPs quit FB over security bill' & it's not getting a huge amount of coverage.

I think the judgement is that they'd rather get the rid of losing left wing MPs than the hit of being accused of being weak on the security services; of course the Tories are accusing Labour of doing so anyway so I wonder what difference abstaining makes...

[Blair]

Wes Streeting replaces Greenwood as Schools minister, which is a net improvement - Greenwood is apparently on the left, but is definitely useless, whereas Streeting is a good media performer. In any case, education policy isn't strongly factionalised in Labour, partly because in all honesty there isn't much detail beyond the slogans.

Streeting and Carden are replaced by James Murray (Ealing North MP, used to be Sadiq Khan's Deputy Mayor for Housing) and Abena Oppong-Asare (Erith & Thamesmead MP) who are both in the centre of the PLP, which would appear to indicate a desire to make sure that the Shadow Treasury Team doesn't become a fiefdom of the right.

If Starmer can come up with something that McFadden resigns over, then it'd be a very strong Shadow Treasury team.

Even to the extent that John McDonnell had to rewrite the DWP part of the Manifesto in 2019 & Corbyn's team came close to replacing Greenwood with McGovern... which shows something.

I agree re Wes; even I grate over his internal stuff but he's actually a pretty talented media performer in that he fails into the category of 'willing to defend whatever Labour is currently proposing no matter how stupid' (something that to her credit RLB always did better back in the day)

I didn't actually know that Murray was left wing enough to have been endorsed by UNITE & LOTO in 2019; but I guess that might have been because he was the frontrunner. They're both relatively solid appointments to the Treasury team; I would worry that the whole treasury FB still lacks punch... but it's not as if there's a whole team of people sat on the sidelines...

[Blair]

Diane Abbott seemingly not happy that Starmer had some ambitions to be leader before he was actually leader. I mean, we are saying that this is actually.......bad, now?

And faulted him as well for being called Keir!

[Blair]

The funny thing about Abott was that she fell into the typecasting of Keir we've seen from the left which is actually a reason why imo they lost.

Firstly she claimed that Keir was a devout remainer but now they're complaining that he's being too flexible in ditching it.

He was always rather legalistic & bland with it (I know having had to watch him at the dispatch box since 2017!)  It was really only after the EU elections that he really egged it up.

Besides I remember when the argument was made by the campaign group after December that Keir was too pro-EU and needed to reach out to red wall seats- he's rightly been doing that since December!